MLB Picks of the Day: World Series Game 2

Justin Verlander

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, October 25, 2017 12:24 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017 12:24 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, nailed his pick on Game 1 of the World Series between the Dodgers and Astros. Read on as he breaks down Game 2 and gives his best value MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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Houston Astros vs L.A. Dodgers

World Series Game 2, Dodgers Lead 1-0

With Clayton Kershaw holding form in Game 1 of the World Series and pitching 7 innings of stellar baseball, the Dodgers now turn to another lefty in Rich Hill to keep the momentum going against the Houston Astros. The Astros, in turn, put their mid-season acquisition Justin Verlander on the mound, who has been nearly unhittable in this postseason and since joining the Astros.

I cashed my Dodgers run line ticket in Game 1 betting that the Astros would continue their struggle against left-handed starters on the year. They now find themselves 24-26 in that split on the season, and their average of 5.6 runs per game against left-handed starters took a hit in this game. They will face another lefty in Rich Hill in Game 2. Hill possesses two very strong positive splits going into this game that must be mentioned. The first is that he is murder on right-handers on the season, putting up a .187 BAA over 109.2 innings pitched. The second is his home split where Hill has accrued an overall .178 BAA, .289 SLG, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.57 FIP. Hill had a very strong second half of the season and an even better September where he put up a 12.41 K/9 against a 2.48 BB/9 over 29.0 innings pitched.

Hill has had two successful, although short, starts this postseason for the Dodgers. His team won both games by 3 runs and he has given up 2 or less runs in seven starts straight.

Speaking of giving up 2 or less runs, Justin Verlander has done that in 12 games straight. It’s been an amazing run for the perennial All-Star, who hasn’t lost a game since joining the Astros. His home and away splits are hard to gauge, as his home numbers have been fantastic yet include games at the spacious stadium in Detroit earlier in the season. I’ll focus on the control numbers for Verlander then, which have been off the charts good. He has a 131/36 K/BB rate on the year on the road and a 20.5% K-BB%. Those numbers translate to any park regardless of outfield dimensions.

Early odds have the Dodgers slightly favored on the moneyline at between -110 to -115 at various books. This is a surprisingly measured opening line given the dominance of Verlander in his most recent outings. I believe it reflects the struggles of Houston against left-handed starters though. I will stay off the side in this one and instead focus on the listed total. Both starting pitchers have favorable splits and should have success, so I am taking Under 7.5 runs in Game 2 as my MLB Pick of the Day.


2017 MLB Record, 225-199-11, +11.54 units

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