Our MLB handicapper spots a line so outrageous that he has to throw all analytics out the window. Everyone knows who the best pitcher is in this matchup, but that is not necessarily the best bet.
I’ll start out this pick with another disclaimer on why it is so important to have multiple books. You can do your shopping for what books are available and highly rated right here on SBR, of course. One of my books is 5Dimes and one of the reasons I like them are there very easy to navigate alternative run lines on MLB. I’ll be using one of those lines to fade a very heavy favorite on Sunday, although that doesn’t necessarily mean I think they will lose the game.
Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is better than Sean Newcomb and that is an undisputed fact. Newcomb comes in after a terrible stretch of games, yet still holds a respectable and above average 4.21 FIP on the season. The Braves rookie burst onto the scene with a 1.48 ERA and .200 BAA in June so the talent is there. Now, would I bet him straight up against Kershaw? Not a chance with the moneyline at -385 at some books such as Bovada. But at 5Dimes I can select a +2.5 run line that will come in around even money on Sunday. Baseball is a game in which if you fail 75% of the time you are a dud and 70% of the time you are a star, so that kind of cushion can’t be passed up. I will take the Braves +2.5 on the run line as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves +2.5 RL (-115)Best Line Offered at 5Dimes
The weather is perfect in the Pacific Northwest, and it is prime time for a dinger filled slugfest at Safeco Field on Sunday. We also have some susceptible pitchers on the mound to take part in the game.
Yovani Gallardo returns to the Seattle rotation on Sunday to take on the New York Yankees. Gallardo was very effective out of the bullpen and picked up a 1.08 ERA in July to earn this start. However, he got rocked in his last six starts before being demoted and I like the chance of him giving up a dinger or two in this game.
Gallardo will face Luis Cessa in a rematch of a game played last August that ended with a 14-4 score. Cessa is coming off of a very short 3.2 inning performance in which he gave up 3 earned runs and walked 4 batters. Those walks ended up getting his pitch count way up and his night was over early. He’s got average stuff and what I don’t like about him is that he can’t get right-handers out. On the year, Cessa is giving up a .344 batting average allowed to righties with a .656 slugging percentage. Seattle has Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino to take advantage of that split. Along with Gallardo’s recent troubles while starting I will take the reasonable Over of 9.5 runs in this game as one of my Sunday MLB selections.MLB Pick: Over 9.5 Best Line Offered at Pinnacle