MLB Picks of the Day for Wed. June 21st

White Sox led by Abreu and Holmberg are going to cash for our MLB Picks today!

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, June 21, 2017 12:23 PM GMT

Plenty of pitching to fade on the Wednesday MLB betting card. Read on as he explains the angles and makes his Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day. 2017 MLB Record, 115-97-7, +8.56 Units, 3.40% ROI

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The Twins have cooled off considerably as of late and their negative run differential has started to catch up with them. Our MLB handicapper believes the team is fade worthy for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins 

The Twins turn to their hot pitching prospect, Jose Berrios, to try to stop the bleeding as they have given up the lead in the AL Central to the Cleveland Indians. They’ll face the White Sox here, a team that Berrios has only faced once. There is really nothing to say that Berrios won’t have some success in this game, and his FIP sits at a decent 3.60. His line drive rates are also excellent at 12% on the season. However, given the situation of the Twins bullpen and their MLB-worst 5.08 FIP I find it hard to back a starter that can have issues with walks, get his pitch count up, and leave the game in the 6th inning. Berrios loses effectiveness the third time through the order with a 4.05 ERA as well, so either he stays in too long or we get the Twins bullpen.

Berrios will face David Holmberg, who makes his 5th start of the year after starting the season in the bullpen. As a soft-tossing lefty, Holmberg didn’t lose any velocity by coming out of the bullpen. However, he has only gone about 4 innings in each of his starts, which helps because he has a 1.00 ERA in the first run through the order and a 7.04 in the second. I’d expect more of the same here, and for the White Sox bullpen to see significant action. That is actually an advantage for them here as they carry a collective 3.62 FIP. Look for the White Sox to rally late to win this game outright or keep it within the +1.5 runs at -115 at Heritage – which will be one of my official MLB Picks of the Day.

Pick White Sox +1.5 (-115)Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers 

There are so many red flags with the starting pitchers in this game that only one choice remains. Fade them both and take the Over with our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop.

Joe Biagini gets his 9th start of the year on the road at Texas on Wednesday, one game after getting destroyed by the White Sox and making it just over 1 inning. Although Biagini’s FIP of 2.92 tells of a pitcher you can have confidence in, his decline in velocity after coming out of the bullpen is troubling. Instead of a pitcher hitting 96-97 on his fastball you have one sitting 92 to 93 mph. His whiff rate on his fastball has been halved with the decline in velocity. Biagini has allowed a .274 batting average allowed in June over 15 innings pitched. He also carries a 2.18 WHIP with men in scoring position.

Biagini will face Tyson Ross, who made his first start last week after coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He had some success against the Mariners, as Ross was effectively wild with his pitches and wasn’t near the plate most of the time (he walked 3 in 5.1 IP). That success will end here, as Ross showed his velocity is 2.5 mph below last year in that start and Toronto will just wait until he finds the plate or take walks. His whiff rate was also only 5.3% - a byproduct of that reduced velocity. At the end of the day, we have two pitchers throwing low-90’s fastballs without much for secondary offerings in the Texas heat. I’ll gladly take the Over in this game with betting odds at Bookmaker as one of my MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 10.5 (-120)Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

 

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