MLB Picks of the Day for Tuesday, June 20th

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, June 20, 2017 12:26 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 20, 2017 12:26 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper suggests fading Chris Tillman until he hits the DL again, as the struggling pitcher has lost his release point and is giving up walks at an amazing rate. Amazing for opponents, that is -  2017 MLB Record, 115-96-7, +8.61 Units, 3.45% ROI

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/] Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Indians

Chris Tillman is obviously broken right now, and even if his .378 BABIP trends to the lucky side his 4.79 BB/9 rate is atrocious. He is continually working from behind the count as well and has only thrown a first pitch strike to 42.5% of batters on the year. That’s down by over 6% from last year. Tillman has also significantly cut his fastball usage on the season, down to 44.1% from 56.8% last year. That would be good if the other offerings he has switched to were having success, but they are not. Either way, a .348 batting average allowed and 2.10 WHIP is absolutely atrocious and indicates a pitcher you should fade every chance you can get.

Josh Tomlin was on my MLB Picks fade list early in the season because of his drop in velocity as he came back from injury. Over the last few games that velocity has returned to his prior levels though, so that red flag is gone. The control has always been great for Tomlin – he carries a 51/6 K/BB rate – a definite plus when compared to Tillman. I’m willing to hammer this Cleveland Moneyline of -131 at Heritage as we get one more chance to fade Chris Tillman before he is sent to AAA or the DL.

Free MLB Pick: Pick Cleveland (-140)Best Line Offered: Matchbook

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 ​​​​​​​Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies

As he is feeling pretty good after picking the last Under in Colorado, Mark Lathrop goes back to the well to suggest this game will also go under the listed total at Coors Field.

Zack Greinke is feeling it right now, and all of his statistics tell the story as well. The most important is a 10.4 K/9 and 1.90 BB/9 rate, which shows that Greinke is on the cusp of pitching a shutout or one-run ball game each time out. He’s pitched in Colorado in early May, giving up 2 earned runs over 7 innings pitched. Over two starts this year against Colorado this year Greinke has put up a 16/2 K/BB rate. His 3.33 FIP is an indication that he is doing everything he can to compete, and his 8-3 record reflects that as well. 

See Why SBR Capper, Willie Bee is Also Riding the Under -

So, for this Under to cash, we need German Marquez to pitch well also. His walk rate is much higher than Greinke’s, but he has kept the ball in the yard and carries a 9.8% HR/FB rate. Marquez’s FIP is 3.91 on the year and combined with Greinke it is a little incredulous that this total has been placed at 11 for this game. I’ll wager that one of these pitchers will have success and that will keep the game Under the 11 runs currently available betting odds at Heritage at +105 on Tuesday night.

Free MLB Pick: UNDER 11 Runs (+100)Best Line Offered: Heritage

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