MLB Picks of the Day for May 29th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, May 29, 2017 12:28 PM UTC

Monday, May. 29, 2017 12:28 PM UTC

Our expert handicapper, Mark Lathrop, looks to finish the month of May strong by finding two matchups with pitchers we can't trust - a recipe for value on the Over as he makes his Memorial Day MLB Picks.


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2017 MLB Record, 83-72-4, +2.21 Units, 1.21% ROI

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies

The Mariners bats have gone cold over the last few weeks. Our MLB handicapper thinks that the psychological advantage of batting in Colorado should give them a boost to realize their full potential.

Embarrasing. That is the word that Nelson Cruz used to describe the Mariners’ offensive performance in Boston on Friday and Saturday. That motivation must have worked, because the Mariners scored five runs against the Red Sox on Sunday in route to a 5-0 shutout win. On Monday, they face Tyler Chatwood of the Rockies who has turned in a series of hot and cold performances on the year. The last one was of the hot variety – a 7-inning shutout performance at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. Chatwood still walked 4 batters in that game and left every batter he let on base stranded. That is the type of luck that will garner you a 4.87 FIP above your true ERA. What really has me excited about Chatwood facing the Mariners though is his sky high 26.5% HR/FB rate. Chatwood has increased his velocity 2.6 mph over last year, but it appears his fastball is straighter than ever.

Pitching for the Mariners is Sam Gaviglio who has dance his way into a 1.38 ERA against a 4.85 FIP. He’s a soft tosser with a 22% line drive and 36.6% fly ball rate that is primed to get messed up pitching in Coors Field. The AAA call-up filling in for Felix Hernandez is brave, I’ll give him that. I don’t trust either pitcher here, which makes the Over of 11 the right call for one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Over 11Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels

The Angels fly all the way back home from Miami to take on the Braves and Julio Teheran. Luckily we are only backing their offense here as their starter could struggle in this interleague matchup.

Julio Teheran has lost his control. That much is evident by the spike in his BB/9 rate of 4.07 this year versus his 1.96 BB/9 rate last year. This, along with a drop in K/9 rate, has caused his FIP to rise from 5.12 from 3.69 in 2016. Lower velocity is partly to blame, but Teheran has also seen a huge drop in his whiff rates that tells me the movement on his pitches has suffered. These are the kinds of signs one sees that tells you a pitcher is dealing with a hidden injury to be honest. I wouldn’t be surprised if Teheran hits the DL soon.

Ricky Nolasco starts for the Angels and he has also gotten hit hard. He carries a 20.3% HR/FB rate into this game along with a 5.68 FIP. His batted ball statistics indicate he is getting hard and those hits are getting pulled – a recipe for dingers. With a low total of 8 on the board I see value on taking the Over in this matchup, which I will do at Pinnacle as one of my Monday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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