MLB Picks of the Day for May 23rd

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, May 23, 2017 1:21 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 23, 2017 1:21 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is 18-7 and +10.23 units over his last 25 published picks here at SBR. Read on as he continues to find wagering value a sharp eye and advanced stats analysis.

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2017 MLB Record, 77-64-4, +4.71 Units, 2.79% ROI

Saint Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

A wager friendly situation presents itself in this game in Los Angeles on Tuesday evening. Our handicapper has taken advantage of a line that triggers an automatic total bet with success this season and this game is not different.

My pattern of taking Overs when the totals are in the 6’s has paid out this year, as I am 3-1-1 in those published MLB selections. Another total that fits the bill hits the board on Tuesday night, as the St. Louis Cardinals travel to face Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw has drawn a 6.5 line in two of his last three starts, clearing both of them to cash the over. There is no denying that he is pitching great, as his 2.89 FIP suggests.  His 62/8 K/BB rate is ridiculously good as well.

Kershaw faces Lance Lynn, who has a 2.78 ERA that is all smoke and mirrors against a mediocre 5.02 FIP. Lynn’s BABIP is over 80 points below his career average, and his HR/FB% is over double what it has been in the last 4 years. What I am saying is that Lynn is not a deserving counterpart to a pitching duel with a total line at 6.5, and as we’ve seen so many times over the season the bullpens will likely decide our fate anyway. The Dodgers will be able to put together a lineup to take advantage of Lynn’s .290 BAA against lefties as well to get a few runs on the board early. I’m taking Over 6.5 runs in this game at Pinnacle as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Over 6.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Texas Rangers vs Boston Reds Sox

Our MLB handicapper spots a starter that will not be a good fit for Fenway, and a situation that is bound to produce offense as the Rangers travel to face the Red Sox.

With both teams coming off of rest days, the Rangers travel east to take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway on Tuesday. Andrew Cashner starts for Texas, a pitcher that has been walking a fine line between disaster and acceptable performance for the entire season. This is shown in his ERA of 2.45 and divergent FIP of 5.10. There are three reasons he is getting punished with a higher FIP than ERA. One is that he walks 4.69 batters per nine innings and has a 19/21 K/BB rate. Second, his BABIP is at .242, which is more than 50 points below his career average. And third, Cashner is stranding baserunners at an 85.3% rate – well above historical norms. Basically, FIP tells us that eventually those walks and runners on base will come around to score.

Rick Porcello starts for Boston and is giving up a .323 batting average against right-handers at home and a .294 average over his last 25 innings pitched. Nothing more to say there. This line is bouncing around a bit, but I am comfortable taking the Over at 9.5 +100 currently listed at Heritage as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks. I am also taking the Rangers +1.5 -120 on the run line as Porcello is just as likely to get roughed up as Cashner here.

Free MLB Pick: Over 9.5 Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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