MLB Picks of the Day for July 26: Winning Picks for Final Wednesday of July

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, July 26, 2017 11:48 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 26, 2017 11:48 AM UTC

As the month of July closes, sample sizes increase for finding hot MLB trends. Our MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop looks at both recent and season long performances to come up with his Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

2017 MLB Record: 149-133-8 (+4.87 Units)

Braves vs. Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks face a Triple-A call-up at home on Wednesday, and our MLB handicapper loves how the Snakes are walloping the ball lately.

The Diamondbacks have hit 12 home runs over the last 7 days and face Triple-A call-up for the Braves Aaron Blair on Wednesday. Blair breezed through the Diamondbacks' minor-league system in 2013-15, but Arizona didn’t see a future with him and shipped him off to Atlanta in the Shelby Miller deal. Maybe what their scouts saw was what actually came to fruition once Blair hit the majors last year, which is that he has terrible command issues at the MLB level. Blair ran a 5.91 K/9 and 4.37 BB/9 rate last year for the Braves and still has a 4.14 BB/9 rate in Triple-A this year. He has kept the ball in the yard this year, a fact that will be tested by Arizona in this game.

Patrick Corbin starts for the Diamondbacks, and if he gets a smidge of run support he should be a winner. Corbin has a 3.15 ERA and 3.39 FIP at home, and his home-field advantage mitigates his issues with right-handers somewhat. On the year, righties are slugging .594 off Corbin on the road and just .431 at home. He’s been very solid in July with an excellent 3.10 FIP through 23 innings pitched. I’ll take the hot pitcher to go with the hot offense here and grab the Diamondbacks on the run line at near even money as one of my Wednesday selections.

Free MLB Pick: Diamondback RLBest Line Offered: Heritage

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Royals vs. Tigers

Our MLB handicapper just came up with a betting strategy based on the strong offensive trends he’s seeing in the AL Central. Here is his first spot to put it to the test!

The Royals and Tigers’ offenses have been scorching hot and in the Top 7 of the MLB over the last month. Here they will face two starters that have FIPs over 5 who should be vulnerable against these lineups. The first is Royals’ Ian Kennedy, who is coming off of a 5-run, 4-inning performance at home against the light-hitting White Sox last week. Kennedy faced the Tigers in Detroit a month ago and got a lucky win after giving up 2 home runs – solo shots. His other start against the Tigers was a 5-run, 3-inning disaster in which he also gave up 2 home runs.

Kennedy will face Anibal Sanchez of the Tigers, who has a 5.32 FIP on the season over 56.0 innings pitched. Sanchez gives up a .300 batting average against right-handers, which should play well into the Royals' lineup -- or any lineup for that matter. He has a dinger problem as well, with a 17.1% HR/FB rate at Comerica Field in Detroit. More troubling is his 25.8% line drive rate at home, another metric that predicts runs will be scored. I’ll back the hot offenses here and take the  'over' as one of my MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 10Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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