MLB Picks of the Day for July 25th

MLB Picks of the Day thumbnail

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 12:34 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper had to delay a pick one day as a late pitching change in Los Angeles pushed back a fabulous rookie worth backing. Here Mark Lathrop breaks down that game and another for his Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/JKhWdrMYutI", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]

2017 MLB Record, 147-133-8, +2.87 Units (2 Pending)

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers

In a rematch from last week, these two AL Central teams face each other in Detroit while the starting pitchers try to avoid another slugfest. Our MLB handicapper doesn’t think history will repeat itself here.

Michael Fulmer had his worst start of the season at Kansas City last week, but not all of it was his fault. The defense behind him was a failure and picked up multiple errors resulting in Fulmer being hit with 8 runs, yet just 5 earned. It was also the game with the highest BABIP at .462 on the year. However you look at it, I’m comfortable with throwing it out as an anomaly, even if he faces the same opponent in this game at home. Fulmer is a pitcher with a .230 BAA and 1.05 WHIP at home after all.

Danny Duffy is on a great streak of games where he has shown excellent command. Duffy hasn’t walked a batter in his last three starts covering 20.1 innings pitched. He’s only won one of those starts though – last week against Detroit – as the Royals scored a combined 2 runs in the other two games. Duffy has a very good 3.51 FIP on the year which ranks him 23rd in the MLB for starters with 90 innings pitched or more. I like both of these pitchers in this spot which makes the side hard to pick, but the Under of 8.5 an easy choice for one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141414, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,123,1275,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 Minnesota Twins vs L.A. Dodgers

This pick got pushed a day, but the value still remains as one of the top young arms in the American League gets a start against the NL West best Dodgers.

Jose Berrios brings his plus-plus breaking ball into Dodgers Stadium on Monday and the 23-year old rookie finds himself as a steep underdog. He’s coming off of a 1-run, 6.2 inning winning performance against the Yankees last week, and his peripherals show no holes in his game. Berrios is equally hard against lefties as righties, and allows just a .235 BAA and .222 BAA, respectively. He’s got an above average FIP at 3.91 and keeps the ball in the yard better than most. Berrios has had winning decisions in 9 of his 13 starts this year.

Kenta Maeda starts this game for the Dodgers and he has had a decent year so far with a 4.04 FIP on the season. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch in July though allowing a .315 batting average this month over 3 starts. My issue with handicapping Maeda is that he rarely pitches deep into games, which brings the bullpen almost certainly into play. The Dodgers have a good bullpen so it hasn’t been much of an issue yet. Either way, I still like the value that Berrios presents here and will back him and the Twins on the run line at Heritage as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins RLBest Line Offered: at Heritage

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140439, "sportsbooksIds":[169,139,180,1096,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]