Picks of the Day for August 2nd

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Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, August 2, 2017 12:28 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop interrupts his packing for the IFBC in Costa Rica just long enough to make his Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day. Read up as he finds two pitchers with superb value on the moneyline to wager on as part of today's card.

2017 MLB Record, 156-141-8, +3.42 Units (1 pending)

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres

Everybody was waiting for Ervin Santana to regress and it appears that he did just that over his last three starts. Our MLB handicapper investigates to see if we should continue fading the veteran right-hander.

Ervin Santana has a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts, picking up a 1-1 record over the same timeframe. He’s been on ‘regression watch’ all year because his 4.94 FIP is vastly different than the 3.37 ERA he has put up over 136.1 innings pitched. Those three starts came against Houston, Detroit, and the Dodgers, however, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He did pitch into the 7th inning against the Dodgers with a 7/0 K/BB rate, after all. Santana still shows no weaknesses from either side of the plate and allows just a .210 BAA to lefties and a .221 BAA against righties on the year.

Santana will face Luis Perdomo of the Padres, who is in the middle of a month in which he is getting hit hard. The 24-year old right hander has allowed a robust .354 batting average against in July, while putting up a 1.95 WHIP in the same month. He struggles against left-handers, which the Twins should be able to take advantage of. I’ll back Santana here as a skinny road favorite on the moneyline as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Minnesota Twins MLBest Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs

Zack Godley comes off of a fantastic road start at St. Louis, but still finds himself a steep underdog in this game at Wrigley Field. Our MLB handicapper likes the prospects of getting extra juice by backing the Diamondbacks.

Zack Godley starts this game after firing seven scoreless innings at St. Louis last week, picking up his 4th win of the season. He pitches deep into games and has a nice 9.27 K/9 rate on the year to go along with a fantastic 3.03 FIP. What I like to look at as an indicator of success in Wrigley is a high ground ball rate, and Godley has that in spades coming in at 57.5%. He’s hard to hit from both sides of the plate as well and has put up a .203 BAA against lefties and .191 BAA against righties on the season.

For the Cubs, Jake Arrieta takes the mound and is having a bad season compared to his last two years. In relation to Godley above, Arrieta has seen his ground ball rate drop and his HR/FB% go up considerably from his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He’s has good results in July with a 2.25 ERA, but the .163 BABIP he has put up in the month suggest that is unsustainable. I’m going to back the more talented pitcher at this time, which is Godley. I’ll do that by taking the Diamondbacks on the first 5-inning line at Heritage when it opens.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (1H)Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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