MLB Picks of the Day: 2017 World Series Game 1

LA Dodgers

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, October 24, 2017 12:38 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2017 12:38 PM GMT

The Dodgers carry a strong advantage in this series with their left-handing pitching. Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, investigates the line offered on Game 1 of the World Series and makes his MLB Pick.

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Houston Astros vs L.A. Dodgers

World Series, Game 1

Game 1 of the World Series is upon us and we have significant line movement to discuss as a wave of money has piled on the Dodgers to start off the final act of the 2017 season. After opening at -153 to begin wagering, the line has sprung to -170 at Pinnacle in favor of the Dodgers as of Monday evening. There is a lot of action on this game so a move of this size has implications for the sportsbooks. The total is set at 7 with juice on the Under, which will cost you as much as -140 at Bovada right now. Only YouWager has had the guts to hang a 6.5 total out there, proving once again it is valuable to have options at multiple books to take advantage of.

Starting Game 1 are two left-handers, but only one team has an advantage off of them on the season. The Astros are 24-25 against left-handed starters this year, good for -11.6 units although they average 5.6 runs against them. The Dodgers have made their entire season’s profit off of lefties, as they are 37-15 in that split with +13.8 units of profit. For reference, the Dodgers have +13.3 units of profit overall on the season.

Houston’s lefty on the mound is Dallas Keuchel, who has had a rough 2nd half of the season up until the playoffs started. His velocity had dropped and was a huge red flag; however, the issue of Keuchel’s declining velocity corrected itself as he has found himself stronger as the season has worn on. It may not matter with this tough matchup against the Dodgers though and their superior record against left-handers. Keuchel has a 4.51 FIP in the second half of 2017 versus a 3.12 FIP in the first half of the year.

With the Dodgers finishing off the Cubs early last week they have had the chance to reset their rotation and have Clayton Kershaw start Game 1 of the World Series. That’s good for the Dodgers since Kershaw has an amazing 14-2 record at home this year with a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His command is also on a ridiculous level as well as he put up a 124/19 K/BB rate over the season. He’s an elite pitcher who finds himself in a great spot in this game.

I’ve already put it out there that I believe that the Dodgers will win this series because of their advantage with left-handed pitching. This game is a prime example, and the fact that the Astros have struggled on offense in their last seven games (2.9 runs, .187 BAA) reinforces some holes in their lineup. I can’t lay the chalk here, but I have no problem laying -1.5 runs on the Dodgers to get back plus odds as my Game 1 World Series MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

2017 MLB Record, 224-199-11, +10.29 units

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