MLB Picks: No Total Too Low For Braves And Mets On Sunday

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, June 19, 2016 11:00 AM GMT

Our MLB handicapper thinks pitching will prevail in this Braves and Mets game. Read on as he analyzes the matchup and looks to improve on his 8-1-1 mark over his last ten games.

Back from the vineyards and my blocks in Red Mountain and it appears I had a big miss and a big win while I was out. On Friday night my over pick in the Texas vs. St. Louis game couldn’t have gone worse as Texas won 1-0. At least I made up for it on Saturday by nailing a parlay backing Cleveland and the Over as they picked on James Shields and the Chicago White Sox Saturday afternoon. I’m 8-1-1 with my last ten picks as I look to continue finding value in the MLB this Sunday. It’s been quite a run.

This Sunday the hapless Atlanta Braves bring their ace to the mound as they take on the New York Mets on the road. Julio Teheran is having himself a fine season, although his win record of 2-7 doesn’t show it. That is what will happen when you pitch for a team with one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. After that abysmal record, Teheran has posted a 2.93 ERA, 85/24 K/BB rate, 0.99 WHIP, and .195 batting average against. The young right-hander has recovered from a 2015 trend where he was getting killed by left-handed batters. In 2015, lefties hit a hefty .297 against Teheran with a .387 on base percentage. In 2016, he’s dropped that split by 90 points with left-handers only hitting .207 off of him and getting on base at a .306 clip. Teheran does still walk lefties at more than three times the rate of right-handers, however.

Starting for the Mets is Jacob DeGrom, who has struck out 28 batters in his last three starts – somehow a no decision and two losses. DeGrom has been very good this year, posting a 2.82 ERA, 65/17 K/BB rate, 1.15 WHIP, and .235 batting average allowed. Just like Teheran, those statistics have led to not a lot of success in the win column, as DeGrom has only won 3 games over his 11 starts. That’s because DeGrom has the 19th worst run support from his Met’s colleagues at 3.36 runs per game.

Teheran wished he had that kind of run support, as he is second in the MLB with the lowest run support at 2.21 runs per game in Atlanta.

With the Mets at 36-30 and the Braves at 21-46, even with Atlanta’s best pitcher on the mound the Mets are -185 moneyline favorites at BookMaker. That steep chalk makes Atlanta’s run line pretty reasonable at -127 at Pinnacle. You’d think that would bring some value into backing Teheran and the Braves by keeping things close in a low scoring game. Things haven’t turned out that way though with Atlanta losing 8 of 11 of Teheran’s losses by more than one run.

The O/U with these two pitchers on the mound is an ultra-low 6.5 runs across the board, with shades to the Over at -125 at BetOnline. Each pitcher has gone 0-3 O-U in their last three games coming into this one as well. No O/U total offered on the MLB Odds of those combined six games was listed over 7.5 either.

Atlanta’s offense has picked up a tick in their last seven games though, as they have averaged 4.9 runs per game. That mark is at odds with their season and day game totals though, where they average 3.3 and 3.1 runs per game, respectively. The Mets also hit worse in day games, averaging just 3.4 runs per game and .233 at the plate.

With both offenses scuffling and two great pitchers on the mound, the value here is on the Under even at 6.5 runs. The trend helps us here and we may even catch a 7 posted as we get near game time. In the meantime, we can get some extra pay by taking under 6.5 runs at +111 at Pinnacle as my Sunday MLB Pick.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993523, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick:  Under 6½ +111
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle
MLB Record: 28-12-2, +15.59 Units