MLB Picks: Nationals vs. Mets Series Series Blog

Darin Zank

Friday, April 19, 2013 12:58 PM GMT

The Washington Nationals and New York Mets begin their season-long divisional rivalry with a three-game series at Citi Field starting Friday night. (Game 2 Preview)

 

21APR
Sunday Game Three

By: Ron Patrick

Washington got this series to even with a 7-6 victory Saturday afternoon, banging out seven extra-base hits, including four homers. The Nationals overcame a poor outing from Gio Gonzalez, winning as -140 favorites on the MLB odds

The first two games of this series have played OVER on the totals. 

So the Nats are 10-7, the Mets 8-8 as the teams head into a rubber match Sunday afternoon (1:10 pm ET). 

Sunday's Betting Odds 

As of early Sunday morning most books were listing Washington with Jordan Zimmerman at around -150 over New York with Dillon Gee, with the OVER/UNDER proffered at 7.5.

The Nationals could also be found at around +115 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up 

Zimmerman is three-for-three on quality starts this year. He held Miami to one run through six innings, then held the White Sox to two runs in seven innings. Then last Monday Big Z limited the Marlins to three runs and six hits in a complete-game 10-3 victory.

Last year Zimmerman started four times against New York, allowing five runs and 19 hits through 23 innings. The Nats won all four of those games. 

Gee is one-for-three on quality starts so far this year. He held San Diego to one run through 6 1/3 innings in his season debut, but then got rocked for seven runs and 10 hits by the Phillies, and five runs and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-4 loss at Colorado.

Last year Gee started once against Washington and took a loss, allowing three ER and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. 

So we give a definitive advantage to Zimmerman in the pitching match-up. 

Check out Willie Bee's Pick on the Yankees vs. Jays Game 3!

[gameodds]3/225328/19-43-999996-1096/us[/gameodds]

Free MLB Pick for Sunday 

We missed with Washington on the run line Saturday, but with Zimmerman's recent track record against the Mets, and Gee's recent struggles, this looks like another good chance for a run-line play on the visiting team.

Pick: Take the Nationals at the +125 on the run line offered at TheGreek.com. 

 

20APR
Saturday's Game Two

By: Ron Patrick

New York, behind budding ace Matt Harvey, took the opener of this series Friday night 7-1, jumping on Nats starter Stephen Strasburg for two runs in the first inning and later getting two homers each from Ike Davis and Luke Duda. The Mets won as +110 home dogs on the MLB odds boards, and the game played OVER its total of 6.5.

Harvey, with just 14 career ML starts under his belt, has now allowed just three runs and 10 hits (!) in 29 innings this season. He is next expected to start Wednesday at home against the Dodgers.

So the Nats are 9-7, the Mets 8-7 as the teams head into Game 2 of this series Saturday afternoon (3 pm ET, Fox).
Saturday's Nats-Mets MLB Betting Odds

As of early Saturday AM most books we consulted were chalking Washington with Gio Gonzalez at around -155 for today's game over New York with Jeremy Hefner. The Nationals could also be found at upwards of +115 on the run line at some shops.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Hefner opened this season with a good outing, holding the Marlins to one run through six innings, but then got touched up by Philly for five runs in just three innings. He then made an appearance in relief Thursday at Colorado and gave up a pair of solo home runs in one inning of work. So Hefner has allowed five homers in just 10 innings this season.

Last year, as a rookie, Hefner started three times against Washington, and got clipped for 10 ER and 21 hits in 17 innings. The Mets lost all three of those games.

Gonzalez opened this season by throwing six innings of shut-out ball against Miami, then held the White Sox to one run through five innings. The Nats won both those games. Last time out, though, Gonzo got bombed for seven runs in five innings last Sunday vs. Atlanta, a 9-0 Washington defeat.

Gonzalez started four times against New York last year, allowing nine ER and 18 hits through 22 innings. The Nats won three of those games.

Be sure to peek at Mr. Willie Bee's Series Picks on the Yankees and Blue Jays!~

Nats-Mets Betting Trends

New York went 21-38 last year against left-handed starting pitchers, and is 2-3 vs. lefties this season.

These two teams are now a combined 22-8 on the OVER/UNDERS this season.

[gameodds]3/225246/1096-43-19-238-93/us[/gameodds]

Free MLB Pick for Saturday

We give Gonzo the advantage in the pitching match-up, and the Mets have had problems with lefties lately. So we're leaning toward Washington to even this series Saturday.

We're also not immune to taking chances, so in searching for a better price we'll take the road favorite giving the run and a half on the run line.

Free Pick: Take the Nationals at the +114 on the run line offered at Pinnacle.

 

19APR
Friday Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

MLB Free Picks: Nationals vs. Mets Series Odds

Can the Mets break a three-game losing streak? Or will the Nats continue their recent dominance over New York?

And how might we profit with our MLB Picks from the goings-ons at Citi Field this weekend?

Nats-Mets Betting Odds

As of Friday AM most baseball books were listing Washington with Stephen Strasburg as -125 MLB odds favorites for this series opener over New York with Matt Harvey.

Also, TheGreek.com was chalking the Nats at -155 to win this series, with the Mets getting +135 as home dogs.

Nats-Mets Series Set-Up

Washington just took two of three games at Miami, winning a series rubber match Wednesday 6-1. That came on the heels of the Nats getting swept at home last weekend by Hot-lanta.

The Mets, meanwhile, just got swept three games in cold and snowy Colorado, losing Thursday's series finale 11-3. New York pitching gave up 28 runs in the three games in Denver.

So, Washington at 9-6 and New York at 7-7 both trail first-place Atlanta in the NL East.

Also, Check out Willie Bee's thoughts on the Yankees vs. the Blue Jays

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Harvey is off to a great start to this season, winning all three of his outings, posting a 0.82 ERA. He opened by throwing seven innings of shut-out ball against the Padres, then gave up one run in seven innings vs. Philly. And last time out he held the Twins to one run through eight innings.

On the season Harvey has allowed just six hits in 22 innings, walked six and struck out 25.

Sounds like the start of a Cy Young season.

Last year Harvey started once against Washington, giving up one run and five hits in five innings, striking out 10 in a 2-0 Mets loss.

Strasburg is 1-2 despite with a 2.95 ERA. He opened this season by throwing seven shut-out innings vs. Miami, but then got nicked for six runs in 5 1/3 innings vs. the Reds. But last time out, last Saturday vs. Atlanta, he gave up two unearned runs in six innings.

On the whole Strasburg has allowed 17 hits in 18 1/3 innings, walked five and struck out 15. But over his last two starts he's needed 114 pitches to get 16 outs, then 112 pitches to get 18 outs.

Strasburg started twice against the Mets last year and fared very well, giving up just one run and six hits through 13 innings, walking three and whiffing 20. The Nats won both those games.

The Washington bullpen owns a 5.36 ERA this season; not to be out-done, New York's pen owns a 5.52 ERA.

Nats-Mets Betting Trends

These two teams are, somewhat surprisingly, a combined 20-8 on the OVER/UNDERS this season.

Nats-Mets Recent History

Last year Washington took the season series from New York 14 games to four. The totals trended toward the UNDERS in this series last year by a 10-7-1 margin.

Injury Update

For Washington, both IF Danny Espinoza (hand) and OF Denard Span (flu) have missed recent action and are listed as questionable for Friday night.

For New York, C Lucas Duda (back) missed Thursday's game in Colorado and is also questionable for Friday.

[gameodds]3/225181/43-1537-19-999996-93/us[/gameodds]

Free MLB Pick for Friday

Strasburg is still tough, but Harvey is emerging as one of the best young starters in baseball, too. And he and the Mets are getting a home-dog price. We'll add the New Yorkers to our list of free MLB picks for Friday.

Free Pick: Take the Mets at the +110 offered at BetOnline.

Bettors should check back at these pages for updates and more free picks as this series progresses