MLB Picks: Nationals To Take The Lead In NL East Series vs. Marlins

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, April 20, 2016 4:45 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 20, 2016 4:45 PM GMT

The Nationals and Marlins play the 3rd game of their scheduled 4-game early week set in Miami. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 ET at Marlins Park. Check out the MLB pick for tonight.

The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins play the 3rd game of their scheduled 4-game early week set in Miami tonight. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 ET at Marlins Park. 

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Miami Marlins Preview (W. Chen)
A common theme in sports handicapping is that you will have consistent long-term success by playing the better team as underdog. We have just such a case today when a 10-3 Washington team, who is 5-2 on the road, plays a 4-8 Miami team, who is 1-6 at home.

Last year, Washington won 83 games compared to 71 by Miami. This year, Washington is projected to win 89 games compared to 79 by Miami. There can be little doubt as to who the better team is in this matchup.

And with projections from early year results clearly pointing out the pitching edge with Ross over Chen, I comfortably elevate this selection to Top Play status. Win or lose, we can feel comfortable that the basis of this handicap is as solid as it gets when analyzing an MLB game.

Washington Nationals Sneak Peek (J. Ross)
After Washington lost 6-1 to Miami ace, Fernandez, on Monday night, the Nationals’ rebounded behind Strasburg for a 7-0 win over the Marlins last night.Led by big man Harper, who has a .429 BA with 5 HRs and 15 RBIs in his last 6 games, the Nationals erupted for 7 runs in the 7th inning led by Harper’s grand slam!

That broke a scoring drought which had seen the Nationals score only 3 runs in 18 innings vs. Philly and Miami on Saturday and Sunday. Tonight’s starter, Ross, has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals. Ross is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA, allowing just 1 run and 8 hits in 14 2/3 IP.

 

Final Analysis
His mound opponent, Chen, will be vulnerable to this lineup. Historically, Chen is 1-3 vs. the Nationals with a 5.09 ERA. Chen comes off a 6-3 loss to light-hitting Atlanta and has a 5.56 ERA for the year to date.

With Barry Bonds as the Marlins’ new hitting coach, it looked like this would be a turnaround season at the plate for Miami. In the first 6 games, the Marlins averaged 5 RPG with a .295 BA.

Since that time, however, Miami has gone 1-5 with a .238 BA, while averaging just 3.2 RPG. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Washington Nationals tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Washington Nationals +106
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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