For my plus money line MLB pick of the day I am backing the Minnesota Twins to beat the Toronto Blue Jays, as the pitching matchup sides a little with the home dog in this spot.
MLB odds makers have come out with Minnesota at about +105. This seems about right because Toronto seems to score quite a bit with Drew Hutchinson pitching, but that is a pretty random stat so I will back the home dog in this spot, albeit a small underdog.
ERA’s over 5.00
Hutchinson comes in with an ERA of 5.12 and a 1.31 WHIP. He is a young pitcher at only 24 years old and on the road his numbers really inflate. In away games this season he has an ERA above 8.00 and batters are hitting .320 off him. Ricky Nolasco has the exact same ERA at 5.12 but a WHIP above 1.60. At home he has been a bit better with an ERA around 4.50 and in his last home start he allowed only two earned runs in seven innings of work against the Red Sox. Also, he has allowed only one walk in his last two starts.
Hits and runs
Before making your MLB pick, note that both the Blue Jays and Twins have had good offenses so far this season. Toronto ranks 1st in runs per game and the Twins are not far off ranked 5th in that category. Overall there is not a lot of disparity between the two at the plate, for example, Toronto ranks 9th in hits per game, the Twins 10th.
I think we are getting a little value here not having to pay any juice on a good team at home. The pitching matchup is pretty even and I like Minnesota’s chances to go ahead and win this rubber match today.
MLB Picks: Twins +109 at Pinnacle