Our MLB consultant takes a look at Saturday’s AL East battle between Baltimore and Boston. His insightful betting preview article on this game culminates with a money line selection.
Saturday Afternoon at Fenway in AL East Clash
The Boston Red Sox will host the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday at 4:05 PM ET. According to the MLB betting odds at Bookmaker, Boston is a -135 money line favorite, and the posted total is 8.5. Today will be the second of a 4-game series between these AL East rivals, and Boston won the opener on Friday by the score of 3-2. Since the start of the 2014 season the Orioles are 11-9 versus the Red Sox, and going under the total has gone 11-8-1.
Home Plate Umpire
Jerry Meals is slated to be the home plate umpire for today’s game at Fenway Park. Going over the total went 47-22-4 in Meals last seventy-three games when he’s been behind the dish. The Orioles have gone a dismal 0-6 in their last six games when Meals is calling balls and strikes.
The Orioles will send right-hander Chris Tillman to the hill on Saturday. Tillman has made two starts this season and hasn’t been exactly sharp. In those two outings he’s posted a lofty 1.71 WHIP, walked six, and allowed three home runs in just 9 1/3 innings.
Clay Buchholz will be the starting pitcher for the Red Sox this afternoon, and the right-hander is coming off a nightmarish start in a 14-4 loss at Yankee Stadium this past Sunday night. Buchholz has gone 5-1 in his last six team starts at home when facing the Orioles, and is also a very profitable 20-7 in his last twenty-seven as a money line home favorite of -110 to -150.
MLB Money Line Betting Angle
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen has been shaky early in this 2015 season. In ten games, Baltimore relievers have compiled a collective 5.30 ERA. The Boston Red Sox are hitting .259 as a team heading into today. Clay Buchholz allowed nine earned runs in his previous start last Sunday against the Yankees. The above mentioned data fits perfectly into a money line betting angle that favors the home team, and one of my MLB Picks on Saturday will be a byproduct of that handicapping tool.
Any home team (Red Sox) hitting a collective .260 or less on the season, and their starting pitcher allowed seven earned runs or more in his previous appearance, versus an opponent with a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or more, resulted in the home team going 47-22 (68.1%) against the money line since 1996.
MLB Pick: Boston -135 on the money line over Baltimore at Bookmaker.