MLB Picks: ML Betting Value For Mets As Tigers Can't Trust Sanchez At This Point

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, August 7, 2016 2:13 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 7, 2016 2:13 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper thinks there is a pitching mismatch worth taking advantage of here, and explains why he is taking the Mets in his Sunday MLB Pick.

N.Y. Mets vs Detroit Tigers 
Two teams trending in different directions meet on Sunday afternoon in an interleague matchup as the New York Mets travel to motor city to take on the Detroit Tigers. The Mets are coming into Saturday as losers of 7 of their last 10 games, while the Tigers come in at a blistering 9-1 pace. The Mets are not doing a very good job at keeping up with the Nationals in the AL East, who have sprung out to a 9 game lead coming into Saturday. The Tigers, meanwhile, have snuck up on the Cleveland Indians and are just two games back in what has become a two-team race in the AL Central.

Slated to start for the Tigers in this game is Anibal Sanchez, who won his first starting decision since April 28th against the White Sox his last time out. It wasn’t a particularly dominating performance, but it got the job done as Sanchez limited the White Sox to one earned run on six hits while striking out two and walking three batters. After a rough first two months of the season, Sanchez was relegated to the bullpen, before coming out to start in late July. His total numbers on the year tell the story, as he has posted a 6.26 ERA, 88/44 K/BB rate, 1.63 WHIP, and .297 batting average allowed (that is very bad). The Tigers have lost 17 out of 25 of Sanchez’s appearances SU so far in 2016

Starting for the Mets in this game is one of the better pitchers of 2016 in Jacob DeGrom. DeGrom has put up impressive numbers this year, which are better than his win-loss record indicates at 7-5. On the season, DeGrom has posted a 2.41 ERA, 117/26 K/BB rate, 1.06 WHIP, and .225 batting average allowed (this is very good). He’s been stellar at home this year, posting a 1.96 ERA there, but still comes in at a 3.02 ERA on the road. DeGrom followed up a 2.45 ERA June with a 2.27 ERA July, and his first start in August was a 4-hit, 7-inning performance in which he gave up no earned runs and struck out 8 batters while walking just one. In fact, that start was the 11th in a row that DeGrom has walked 2 batters or less in a game. This will be the first time for the majority of the Detroit offense in seeing DeGrom on the mound. That doesn’t bode well for the Tigers.

With the matchup against Anibal Sanchez, this could be a game in which the Mets get their road offense average up. On the year so far, the Mets have only hit .241 on the road and average 3.6 runs per game. Their offense has been so anemic in fact, that they are tied for 28th in the MLB in overall runs scored. The Tigers are tied for 7th, but will have to overcome the lopsided pitching matchup in this game.

The lines posted in this game have the Mets barely favored on the road, even with the mismatch in pitching, with the moneyline sitting at -125 at 5Dimes. The O/U total is sitting at 8.5 runs across the board, a line I wouldn’t touch with Sanchez on the mound. DeGrom is the only starter I trust in this spot, which is why I am taking the Mets with MLB odds at -121 with 5Dimes as my Sunday MLB Pick.


Free MLB Pick: Mets at -125
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
2016 YTD MLB: 43-29-4, +12.21 Units

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