MLB Picks: Milwaukee Slides by San Francisco Monday Night

Milwaukee Brewers

Monday, June 5, 2017 2:59 PM GMT

In the National League and to those betting on baseball, two things we did not see happening when forecasting events for June 5th, 2017; Milwaukee in first place and San Francisco in last place.

The Brewers have been the best club in the NL Central and have the best run differential to prove it. The Giants started 1-5 and have not recovered and have the same record in their last half dozen games.

This is the first of four contests in the Brew City and this humble handicapper will try and better recent 8-2 record.

 Pitching Matchup - Samardjida vs. Guerra

At this location and others, I have been critic of Jeff Samardjida (1-7, 4.63 ERA). While I could hammer him again, let me explain why San Francisco and others have wanted him. In 72 innings this season, Samardjida has 84 strikeouts and only 11 walks and in the month of May, he punched-out 48 and walked merely one. Smards does have a wipe-out slider, yet he cannot control it and the fastball often enough, which is why he's surrendered 74 hits, 10 of which have gone over the fence. The 32-year old is 0-5 against Milwaukee as a starter and 2-6 with a 4.82 ERA against them in all appearances.

We saw Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.84) on opening day, then not again until late May after being on the DL. Guerra made his major league debut at 31 last year and owns a splitter that will often dart around like a knuckleball, making it almost impossible to hit. In 2016, he only gave up a .213 batting and while 14 innings is a small sample size, thus far hitters are doing even worse at a .151 BA.

 

San Fran Offensive Woes Continue, However, None for the Brew Crew

Given the quality of the NL West this season, San Francisco looks doomed for a fourth place finish. Scoring 3.5 runs per game will place in that position and even the Giants have had outbursts like this past weekend and tallied 20 runs, they still lost series to floundering Philadelphia. Maybe having Hunter Pence back from the DL will help, but when you are 14th in OBP and 15th in the league in slugging percentage, unless Willie Mays is coming back and playing like he did at 25, Pence will not be a massive difference-maker.

Milwaukee has not had a problem scoring at Miller Park, averaging 5.4 runs a game, led by Eric Thames 15 homers and the excellent all-around showing of 3B Travis Shaw, who is batting .292 and has a .869 OPS, thanks to 10 homers and also driving in 40 runs. This is a potent offense that has shown they can score on anyone, however, they would win more with better pitching.

 

Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers

Seeing the MLB odds with the Giants a -115 road favorite with total at Un8.5(-120) is a head-scratcher. Granted, San Francisco has won five of last six in Milwaukee and the Crew is just 13-15 at home, yet, impossible to overlook the Giants are 10-21 away and being outscored by 2.0 RPG. The bullpens are comparable, with San Fran 7th in ERA in the league and the Brewers 9th.

 The Winner Is...

For MLB picks, I could trot out a dozen angles that make San Francisco a terrible choice on Monday. Instead, I will use two compelling ones, the Giants are 1-10 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and Samardjida and his teammates are 3-9 when the total is 8 to 8.5 the last two seasons.

Free MLB Play: Milwaukee winsBest Betting Line: at 5Dimes

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