MLB Picks: Miami Marlins Team Profile 2016

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, February 11, 2016 10:45 PM GMT

The LT Profits Group are providing team profiles for every MLB team for the 2016 season that can be referred to when making MLB picks. Today they look at the Miami Marlins.

We are seven weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB season, which kicks off with three games on Sunday, April 3rd with the rest of the league starting play the following day, Monday, April 4th, but in an attempt to assist you with your MLB picks, we are here to present team profiles for all 30 Major League Baseball teams in advance of opening day. Today we profile the Miami Marlins, who finished 71-91 in 2015 and in third place in the National League East.

For starters, here is a summary of the Miami betting statistics for the 2015 season. Please note that all of these stats are for regular season games only and that the units won or lost are based on betting one unit every game, with those units and Over/Under records based on the closing lines from Pinnacle Sports.

 

Miami Marlins 2015 Betting Stats

   Home  Away  Overall
Record   41-40  30-51  71-91
Units Won/Lost    -0.72  -13.41  -14.13
Over/Under  38-31-2    39-36-6    77-77-8  

 

The Marlins were popular darkhorse picks to win the National League East last season, but they were major disappointments finishing 20 games under .500 as former manager Mike Redmond was fired on May 17th in favor of general manager Dan Jennings. It made no difference though as the team went on to go 55-69 under Jennings. Yes, Miami finished one game over .500 at home but that was not enough for bettors, as the net result was -0.72 units.

Next, we move on to the Marlins’ statistical summary for the 2015 season.

 

2015 Miami Marlins Team Statistics

   Total    Rank 
Batting Average    .260  8th
Runs per Game  3.78  29th
Home Runs  120  29th
OPS  .694  26th
ERA  4.04  15th
WHIP  1.32  19th
Bullpen ERA  3.66  14th

 

The Miami pitching was actually quite respectable last year, thanks to return of stud ace Jose Fernandez following Tommy John surgery, but the offense was a disappointment ranking second to last in all of baseball in runs per game and total home runs, and the offense was downright anemic once Giancarlo Stanton was lost for the season with a broken hand as the slugger had 27 on the team’s 120 home runs while playing in only 74 games!

And now, we examine various Miami Future Odds on winning the 2016 World Series from several top sportsbooks. You can view these and other MLB odds on the MLB Betting Futures Directory.

 

2016 Miami Marlins World Series Futures

   Odds
5Dimes  +4600   
Bovada  +7500
BetOnline    +6600
Heritage  +4000

 

There is some volatility in these odds, suggesting that the oddsmakers are not totally sure what to expect from the Marlins this year. Yes, they are the consensus third choice to win the NL East behind the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, but the fluctuation of the Future Odds between +4600 and +7500 among even the best of sportsbooks suggests some uncertainty.

 

2016 Miami Marlins Batting Forecast
The Marlins have hired former Dodgers Manager Don Matting as their new manager with Jennings now resuming his full-time general manager duties, but first and foremost, having Stanton healthy for the entire season could make any manager look like a genius. In fact, Stanton is the favorite to win the Major League home run title as of now at consensus odds of just 8/1.

As for the rest of the offense, there is potential for improvement over last season with Christian Yelich, Martin Prado and Marcell Ozuma all fully capable of topping 60 RBI and with reigning Major Leagues stolen base leader Dee Gordon (58) back to again serve as a catalyst, even if he does not approach his unlikely .333 batting average of last year. The biggest sore spot right now is at first base, which is disconcerting for such a traditionally offensive position.

 

2016 Miami Marlins Pitching Forecast
If the offense does indeed improve and if Stanton can go an entire season without getting hurt, then perhaps the experts were one year early in proclaiming the Marlins darkhorse contenders because the Miami starting rotation was fifth in the Major Leagues in collective WAR last season and now Fernandez only figures to get stronger in his second season following Tommy John, which makes him downright scary!

And the starting rotation gets deeper this year with the addition of former Oriole Wei-Yin Chen, who we admittedly have always felt was a bit overrated but who currently has a fine early predicted WAR of 3.5 on the ZiPS projections, as the change in leagues from the American League and its designated hitter to the National League should only help his numbers. The bullpen is not great but it is competent with Carter Capps setting up and A.J. Ramos closing.