MLB Picks: Mets To Beat Marlins Despite Their Injuries

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, June 4, 2016 12:06 PM GMT

The Mets captured the series opener in Miami last night and snapped a three-game Marlins' winning streak in the process. Let's choose the right side to include in our MLB picks for this afternoon!

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 27-15, +11.98 units
We clicked with a fairly large favorite on Thursday night when the Indians rallied to defeat the defending World Champion Kansas City Royals. Though laying MLB odds of -155 is tough to swallow, it is much easier to digest than where the number eventually settled and that was north of -200 in some shops. Truth be told that would have made this game a pass for me but I struck early and got a number that was palatable enough for me to include in my MLB picks that evening.

We are ripping it up so far and are plus almost 12 units on the season, averaging just four to five picks a week. Don't spray the board every night, be an assassin and zero in on your one favorite play. Make sure you do your homework, stay away from drunken bets and tail your old buddy SJ here at SBR!

 

New York Mets (30-23, -1.1 units)
The Mets had lost four of their last five before claiming a 6-2 decision over the Miami Marlins in the series opener. It was not only a good win to break out of their recent malaise but it was also a victory over an NL East rival that is nipping at their second place heels. The Mets trail the division leading Washington Nationals by two games and are looking to close the gap while putting some daylight between them and the third place Marlins with a series sweep. But before that happens the Mets must defeat Miami this afternoon and tomorrow.

The ageless Bartolo Colon (4-3, 3.39) takes the hill for the Metropolitans this afternoon after getting outdueled by the immaculate Clayton Kershaw in his last outing against the Dodgers. The 43-year-old Colon surrendered two earned runs on seven hits in the 4-2 defeat last Sunday but pitched effectively throughout. Colon is 7-4 when starting against the Marlins over his career with an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.156.

Miami Marlins (29-26, +4.6 units)
The Marlins looked as though they were ready to go on an extended roll after taking three of four against the Pirates but were halted last night with a 6-2 loss to their divisional rivals, the New York Mets. Miami's offense has been getting on the base paths as evidenced by their 5th ranked team batting average and 8th ranked on base percentage. Unfortunately that has not translated into runs as the team heads into this afternoon's contest with the 25th ranked scoring attack, plating just 214 runs on the season.

Southpaw Justin Nicolino (2-3, 4.50) gets the starting assignment for the Marlins and looks to improve upon his last outing where he allowed three runs on six hits in five innings of work that resulted in a 10-0 blanking at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night. Nicolino is 0-0 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.167.

 

Betting Analysis
Truth be told every single time Bartolo Colon gets the start I think to myself, "How much longer can this middle aged fat guy keep it going?" I am always waiting for his eventual demise but he keeps hiding from Father Time like the proverbial needle in the haystack. Thus, I have to restrain myself from fading him, just for the sake of fading him, and today I will actually fade the opposing pitcher Justin Nicolino.

Nicolino has not been able to get it going and seems to get a case of the yips when he pitches at Marlins Park as evidenced by his 5.24 ERA at home. Conversely, Colon is 3-1 on the highway with a 4.20 ERA and has gone 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA, 25 strikeouts and one walk in his last seven starts against the Marlins. In addition, the acquisition of veteran James Loney has already paid dividends for New York and despite their rash of injuries I like them to win this one today, particularly while Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton is still in the midst of a hitting slump.

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Free MLB Pick: New York Mets -108
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