MLB Picks: Martinez Should Dazzle Against Dodgers On Wednesday Night

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 31, 2017 2:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 31, 2017 2:50 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper believes there is a great advantage here in the starting pitching matchup, but the value stops at the 5 inning mark as he makes one of his Wednesday MLB Picks.

2017 MLB Record, 85-72-5, +4.94 Units, 2.65% ROI

The Dodgers and Cardinals finish their midweek series on Wednesday evening, as Hyun-Jin Ryu gets a start for the Dodgers against Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals. Martinez has the better overall season stats to date, so the Cardinals have been placed as -130 favorites on the moneyline at multiple books. But with the Cardinals struggling against lefty starters to the tune of 3.5 runs per game and a .211 batting average allowed the O/U total sits at 8 on this game.

Ryu’s last appearance was actually a late relief performance against the Cardinals at home on May 25th. In that game, he pitched 4 innings of shutout ball, facing 14 batters and giving up just 2 hits. He pitched well enough to get a rare save on the stats sheet. In that game he had his junkball, groundball tendencies in full swing too – inducing over 80% ground balls in at bats put into play. But unfortunately for Ryu, his season hasn’t gone to plan as he has allowed a .280 batting average allowed and a 1.50 WHIP. His FIP sits at 5.23 on the year and he hasn’t regained the form he had in 2014 and 2013 where he posted a 2.62 and 3.24 FIP, respectively.

Carlos Martinez starts this game for the St. Louis Cardinals and he has just gotten stronger as the season has continued. After putting up a 4.71 ERA in April he has followed with a 2.23 ERA in his five starts in May. Martinez has pitched at least through the sixth inning in each of his last 6 starts while giving up 3 earned runs or less in those games. His splits don’t look like he can be taken advantage of with a stacked lineup either, as he has allowed right-handers to bat .198 off of him and lefties just .216.

One of the hallmarks of a pitcher I’m willing to back is his performance to work out of the stretch. In that regard, Martinez has my support in spades, a .198 BAA with the bases empty, .224 with men on base, and an excellent .174 BAA with men in scoring position. Compare that to Ryu, who has a .278/.284/.325 split in those same situations.

The Cardinals have a great starting pitching advantage here, but when it comes to the bullpens the Dodgers have the advantage. On the season through Tuesday, the Cardinals bullpen is carrying a 4.72 ERA against a 2.67 ERA for the Cardinals. For that reason. I will limit my pick here to the first 5 innings, backing Martinez on the moneyline at the best line offered as one of my Wednesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Picks: Cardinals +115Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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