MLB Picks: Marlins vs. Pirates 1st 5 Innings Odds Analysis

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, August 6, 2013 1:45 PM GMT

The Pittsburgh Pirates are overpriced in the betting market Tuesday, as they prepare to open up a three-game series with the Miami Marlins.


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this National League matchup at PNC Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Read today's Daily Pitching Report first for a breakdown of the day's pitching matchups.

Hitting the road

Miami went 5-5 on its recently completed 10-game home stand, which included a 2-0 setback to the Cleveland Indians as +109 underdogs Sunday, while going ‘Under’ the betting total for the fifth time in six contests.

The Marlins are 7-11 as road underdogs of +175 to +200 this season, with the ‘Over’ going 8-7-3 in that situation.

Continue to lead the way

Pittsburgh is 6-2 on its current 11-game home stand, as it enters this series with a two-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central standings.

The Pirates are 6-0 as home favorites of -175 to -200 during the 2013 campaign, with the ‘Over’ going 4-1-1 in those six opportunities.

Alvarez

Marlins starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez (2-1, 2.61 ERA) has won back-to-back games, including a 3-2 home victory over the New York Mets last time out, as he allowed two runs and six hits over 7.1 innings of work.

Alvarez earned a 2-0 home win over the Pirates in his only career start against them on July 26—surrendering just two hits over six shutout frames.

Locke

Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Locke (9-3, 2.36 ERA) has watched the club alternate wins and losses over his last five outings, as he didn’t earn a decision in a 5-4 home victory over the St. Louis Cardinals last time out.

The left-hander is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 home appearances, issuing 23 walks and striking out 36 batters in 56.2 combined frames.

Locke ended up on the losing end against Alvarez in his first appearance in this series.

 [gameodds]3/240710/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Marlins in the first five innings for their MLB picks, as they’ve won nine of their last 13 games versus left-handed starters.

MLB Pick: Bet the Miami Marlins +160 in first five innings at Ladbrokes

Looking for a breakdown on today's games? Read our Daily MLB Betting Lines & Odds Report!