MLB Picks: Marlins vs. Phillies

Jeff Grant

Friday, May 3, 2013 2:15 PM GMT

Friday, May. 3, 2013 2:15 PM GMT

The Miami Marlins have the worst record in the National League, but they may offer some value against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Where should MLB bettors look for value tonight?

Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this NL East divisional matchup at Citizens Bank Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Little to no offense

Miami has scored just 81 runs in putting together a 8-21 record through 29 games, as it looks to bounce back from a 7-2 defeat to Philadelphia as +221 road underdogs Thursday, while going OVER the total for a second consecutive contest. 

The Marlins are 1-8 as road underdogs of +150 or higher this season, with no edge found in terms of the betting total (4-4-1 Over/Under).

No better time to make a run 

Philadelphia finds itself in third place and 4.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the National League East standings, but it definitely has the opportunity to move its record (13-16) back to .500 by winning the final three games of this series. 

The Phillies are 33-27 in May the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 34-22-4 in that situation.

Nolasco 

Marlins starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco (2-2, 3.82 ERA) has led the club to back-to-back wins, including a 6-4 home victory over the Chicago Cubs last time out, as he allowed three runs and four hits over seven strong innings. 

The right-hander is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three road outings, with opposing hitters batting .246 against him, issuing six walks and striking out 12 batters in 16.1 combined frames.   

In 19 career games versus the Phillies, Nolasco has tallied a 8-5 record and 3.73 ERA, including a 5-0 mark and 2.89 ERA in his last five efforts at this ballpark.

Pettibone 

Phillies starting pitcher Jonathan Pettibone (1-0, 4.35 ERA) has led the squad to wins in both of his starts this season, including a 9-4 road victory over the New York Mets last time out, surrendering three runs and seven hits over five innings.

The right-hander is allowing opposing hitters to hit .333 against him, but he’s issued just two walks and struck out 10 batters in 10.1 innings thus far.

[gameodds]3/225982/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Marlins as one of their MLB picks Friday night, as they’ve won Nolasco’s last four efforts as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Phillies bullpen has compiled a 4.50 ERA in its last 10 games. 

MLB Pick:  Miami Marlins +147 at Bet365

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