MLB Picks: Marlins vs. Dodgers Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, May 12, 2014 12:09 PM GMT

Monday, May. 12, 2014 12:09 PM GMT

LA has taken the first two games of this series, after winning 7-1 Tuesday night. That game sneaked OVER its total of 7.5 runs, providing us with a winner on our free pick for Tuesday. The Dodgers now shoot for the series sweep when the teams meet for Game 3 Wednesday night (10:10 pm ET).

Wednesday's Line
As of early Wednesday morning this game had not yet been lined, as books sized up Miami's listed starter, Anthony DeSclafani, who will be making his ML debut against LA and Paul Maholm.

[gameodds]3/264015/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up
Maholm (1-3, 4.71), by our tough standards, is two-for-six on quality starts this season. Last time out he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings against San Francisco, walking four in a 3-1 Dodgers loss. And over his last three starts he's given up eight runs and 18 hits in 18 2/3 innings.

For the season Maholm has allowed 40 hits in 36 1/3 innings, and has walked more guys, 15, than he's struck out, 14.

Since the beginning of last season, when he was with the Braves, Maholm has started three times against Miami, giving up seven runs and 17 hits in 17 1/3 innings. His teams won two of those three games.

DeSclafani will be making his ML debut in place of injured ace Jose Fernandez. Most recently a sixth-round draft pick of the Toronto Blue Jays back in 2011, the 24-year-old righty is 23-13 with a 3.17 ERA in the Minors.

DeSclafani gets a shot at this spot after going 3-4 with a 4.19 ERA at AA Jacksonville earlier this spring, walking 10 while striking out 38 in 43 innings.

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Updated Marlins-Dodgers Betting Trends
These teams have now met five times this season; all five games played OVER the totals.

Miami has lost five games in a row, and is 3-15 on the road this season.

 

Free Pick for Wednesday
This is a tough one, because while the Marlins are going with a ML virgin on the mound, LA's Maholm hasn't done a whole lot to inspire confidence.

Pitchers often hold an advantage over hitters who haven't faced them, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup. But at the moment this Dodgers lineup is going pretty good, scoring 23 runs over the last four games. So in staying with a theme for this series we'll go with the OVER for our free pick on Wednesday's contest.

 

13th May
Marlins vs. Dodgers Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Tuesday's Line
In the early betting LA and Josh Beckett were favored by around -165 over Miami and Jacob Turner, with a total of 7.5 runs.

[gameodds]3/263865/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up
Beckett (0-1, 2.80) is two-for-six on quality starts this year; he'd have a couple more had he pitched a couple more innings. Last time out Beckett held the Giants to one run through 6 2/3 innings, while over his last five starts he's allowed seven ER in 31 1/3 innings.

So far this season Beckett has allowed just 25 hits in 35 1/3 innings, walked 12 and whiffed 34. But LA, in part because of some poor run support, is just 1-5 in Beckett's starts, with the totals splitting 3-3.

Beckett, a former Marlin, has started once already this season against Miami, giving up four runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 6-3 Dodgers loss back on May 2.

Turner (0-0, 6.75) will be making his fourth start of this season, his third since coming off the DL. Through his first two starts, including a rough one against these Dodgers 10 days ago, Turner had allowed 11 runs and 17 hits in 10 innings. But last time out he held San Diego to one run through six innings.

On the season Turner has given up 22 hits in 16 innings, walked five and struck out just eight.

Miami is 2-1 in Turner's starts, with the totals going 2-1.

In two career starts against the Dodgers Turner has given up nine ER and 19 hits in nine innings; Miami lost both those games, and both played OVER the totals.

 

Betting Trends Update
These teams have met four times this season; all four games played OVER the totals. Also, the Marlins have played four OVERS in a row, while the Dodgers have played three O's in a row.

 

Free Pick for Tuesday
We'd lean toward the Dodgers and Beckett, but that price seems a bit much. So we'll instead look toward the total for our free pick on Tuesday's game and go with the OVER 7.5 runs (+110) at 5Dimes.

 

12th May
Marlins vs. Dodgers Game 1

By: Ron Patrick

 

The Lines
Most books we checked placed Monday's series opener with LA and Dan Haren as favorites by around -160 over Miami and Tom Koehler, with an 'over/under' of seven runs. Many books then also bumped the Dodgers to the -170 range. 

 The Greek was chalking Los Angeles at -180 to win this series, while the Marlins (who won't face Kershaw, Greinke or Ryu), were getting +160.


The Situation
LA just dropped three of four games at home to rival San Francisco over the weekend, losing Sunday 7-4 in 10 innings. So the Dodgers have lost three series in a row.

 At 20-19 LA sits in third place in the NL West, 4.5 games behind the division-leading Giants.

Miami had won five in a row, but just lost the last three games of a four-game series at San Diego over the weekend, falling Sunday 5-4.

At 20-18 Miami sits in second place in the NL East, two games behind first-place Atlanta.

This is the second meeting this season between these two teams. Two weeks ago, the Marlins took two of three games from the Dodgers in Miami. All three of those games played 'over' on the totals, as the teams combined to score 34 runs.


Monday's Pitching Match-Up
Dodger Haren (4-1, 2.68) is four-for-seven on quality starts for his new team this season. Last time out he gave up three runs in six innings against Washington, and over his last four starts he's permitted nine ER in 26 innings.

On the season, Haren has given up 44 hits in 43 2/3 innings, walked just nine and whiffed 36. LA is 5-2 in Haren's starts, with the totals going 4-3.

Last year, pitching for the Nationals, Haren started four times against Miami, allowing 11 ER and 24 hits in 19 1/3 innings; the Nats lost all four of those games.

Koehler (3-2, 1.99), very quietly, is six-for-seven on quality starts this year, and two for his last two. Five days ago he held the Mets scoreless on two hits through eight innings, and 10 days ago he held these Dodgers scoreless on three hits through seven innings.

For the season Koehler has allowed only 28 hits in 45 1/3 innings, walked 17 and struck out 29. Miami is 4-3 in Koehler's starts, with the totals going 4-3. In two career starts against Los Angeles, Koehler has allowed two runs and 10 hits in 12 innings; the Marlins split those two games.

In the comparison of the bullpens LA ranks 19th with a 3.94 ERA and is 12-for-17 on save opportunities, while Miami ranks 22nd in ERA at 4.09 and is eight-for-13 on save chances.


With the Sticks
Miami ranks eighth in team OBP at .329 and has averaged 4.4 runs per game. The Marlins have been held to three or fewer runs in five of their last six games, and didn't score Sunday until plating four in the eighth inning.

LA ranks 14th in OBP at .320, and has averaged 4.1 RPG. Interestingly, the Dodgers lead the Majors in stolen bases with 44, while Miami ranks dead last in steals with just nine.

 
Marlins-Dodgers Betting Trends
Miami is just 3-13 on the road this season. The Marlins are also 22-13 on the totals this year, and have played nine 'overs' in their last 13 games.

The totals have leaned toward the 'overs' this year by an 11-6 margin in games played at Dodger Stadium.


Injury Update
LA's Juan Uribe (.306, four homers) has missed recent action with a pulled hamstring, and his status for this series is uncertain.

[gameodds]3/263824/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Free MLB Pick: Miami has struggled on the road so far this season, but in looking for value on Monday's game we will place our MLB pick with the road dog. Bet with the Marlins, getting +152 at BetOnline.

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