MLB Picks: Marlins vs Dodger, Betting Odds & Free Prediction, May 20th

Jay Pryce

Saturday, May 20, 2017 6:16 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 20, 2017 6:16 PM UTC

L.A. is a heavy favorite to notch another victory at Dodger Stadium versus the Marlins on Saturday night (10:10 p.m. ET). It's home winning percentage tops the National League. Miami puts up a tough fight tonight. Pick and betting preview here.

Miami Marlins (14-27)

The Marlins have lost 19 of their last 23 games following a 7-2 defeat to the Dodgers on Friday night. Their 14 wins are the fewest in MLB. Not event he most diehard fan expected a start this bad. What’s the problem? Primarily poor pitching, Miami yields 5.91 runs per game in this stretch. The rotation has put in just six quality starts.

Dan Straily commands the hill Saturday for manager Don Mattingly. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 3.56 ERA through eight starts. Straily’s stuff has been magnificent, but the wins are missing. His .160 opponents batting average allowed is the lowest in MLB.

Straily’s pitching arm ate a 108-mph liner off the bat of Houson’s Evan Gattis in the fifth inning of a 7-2 home loss in his last outing. X-rays on his forearm returned negative, but trainers used a special pad to reduce swelling. Bettors will have to wait and see whether the right-hander feels any ill effects.

Straily lost his lone career start versus the Dodgers 3-1 last May as a Cincinnati Red. The right-hander allowed 3 earned runs on 3 hits in 7 innings. Straily was roughed up in two other relief outings. Overall, he owns a 8.56 ERA against the Dodgers with 9 earned through 9.1 frames.

L.A.’s current roster has just 28 plate appearances combined, but have hit Straily hard. They own a .905 OPS with Franklin Gutierrez, Yasmani Grandal, and Yasiel Puig each launching home runs.


Los Angeles Dodgers (25-18)

L.A. is taking care of business at Dodger Stadium. The team sports a 15-6 home record, second to the Orioles (14-3) in winning percentage in MLB. The Dodgers are beating opponents by 2.8 runs per game, cashing the run line 62 percent of the time. They have tossed the first pitch at -155 odds or higher in every contest.

Julio Urias takes the rubber for Saturday night. The young southpaw is 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA in four starts. Urias is struggling with his command, gifting 11 walks to 11 strikeouts in 21 innings. Timely outs are limiting the damage. The lefty has never faced the Marlins.

L.A. is 7-3 at home behind Urias all-time, but have dropped three of the last four. The second-year pro has put in a quality effort just twice.

In the last 10 years, the OVER is 26-6-2 when the Marlins and Dodgers clash in L.A. They are combining for 8.9 runs per contest, 1.3 more than the 7.6 average total. At least one team has crossed the plate five times or more in all but six meetings. Bettors have netted 51 percent profit backing the OVER.


Final Analysis

Betting against the Dodgers in L.A. is like playing with fire, but the Marlins get their best shot with the red-hot Straily on the mound. Miami’s bats will have to wake up, however. Since the start of last season, the Marlins are 10-1 versus left-handed starters in games with a total less than 8 runs. Miami +172 is the MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: Miami +172Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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