MLB Picks: Marlins Even Odds Best Value Over Braves

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, April 30, 2014 2:08 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 30, 2014 2:08 PM UTC

The Miami Marlins have been profitable home underdogs in their last 10 opportunities, which provides bettors an opportunity to cash in against the Atlanta Braves Wednesday night. Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting lines for this NL East matchup.

Atlanta had its four-game winning streak snapped Tuesday, as it suffered a 9-0 defeat to Miami as +119 road underdogs, while going 'over' the betting total for the first time in three contests.  

The Braves still hold a 2.5-game lead in the division standings over the New York Mets, as their pitching staff entered last night’s game with a league-leading 2.04 ERA.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the team is 24-31 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125.

Winning at Home
Miami is two games under .500 on the season, but it has outscored opponents by 15 runs on the season due to its 10-4 mark when playing at this venue.

The Marlins continue to be led offensively by the play of outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who has set a franchise record with 31 RBIs in the months of March/April.

MLB handicappers will find that the franchise is 9-1 in its last 10 games as a home underdog, with the 'over' going on a 4-1-1 run in that situation.

Braves' starting pitcher Aaron Harang (3-1, 0.85 ERA) didn’t earn a decision in a 3-1 home win over the Marlins a week ago, as he allowed a single run and six hits over six innings of work.

The right-hander is holding opponents to a .143 average—the second-best mark of its kind in the league behind Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto.

Harang will be making his first career appearance at this ballpark, but he compiled a 1-2 record and 7.16 ERA in his six previous efforts in South Beach at Sun Life Stadium.

Marlins' starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 2.87 ERA) allowed just a single unearned run and five hits over six frames when matching up with Harang in his last outing, with the club falling to 2-3 in his five trips to the mound this season.

The right-hander has registered a 1-1 record and 2.84 ERA in three home appearances in 2014, with opposing hitters batting .260 against him.

In seven lifetime starts versus the Braves, Eovaldi has gone 1-1 with a 1.88 ERA.

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Marlins as one of their MLB picks, as they’ve won five of six home games with a total of 7 or less.

Free MLB Pick: Miami Marlins +100

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