MLB Picks: Marlin Is A No-Brainer In Late Match Vs. Padres

Monday, June 13, 2016 1:57 PM GMT

The Marlins travel to San Diego to open up a three-game set with the Padres after dropping their last two in the desert. Let’s examine the matchups, as well as the MLB odds, and cash another winner.

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 34-16, +18.46 units
If you’ve got a hunch, bet a bunch - nothin’ sweeta’ than a repeata’ - and so the gambling clichés go. After cashing the Milwaukee Brewers +120 over the New York Mets yesterday and winning nine of our last 10 MLB picks, I am open to any and all of the age old gambling axioms you can throw at me. We are on fire and having a great season in Major League Baseball.

This season has been a combination of pouncing on heavy favorites, if they are indeed deserving of those hefty MLB odds, and backing the underdogs if they have a better than even money chance of cashing. We have been eschewing historical trends in favor of isolating spots and it’s been a helluva ride but it’s only June. There’s still plenty of baseball to played…and bet. Let’s go!

 

Miami Marlins (32-31, +2.00 units)
The Marlins lost two of three in the desert to the Diamondbacks and are currently just a scooch over .500. Yesterday they were blanked 6-0 by their hosts after losing 5-3 on Saturday. The Marlins managed only three hits on the day and are currently in third place in the NL East, trailing the Washington Nationals by seven games. Despite the club’s 7th best team batting average (.268) they are ranked 23rd in runs scored.

Tonight southpaw Wei-Yin Chin (3-2, 4.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) gets the start for Miami. Chin was tagged for five runs on nine hits in five plus innings of work against the Twins which resulted in a 7-5 loss last Wednesday. This will be his first start against the Padres in his professional career.

 

San Diego Padres (26-38, -3.70 units)
The Padres, like their guests tonight, dropped the final two games of a three game set over the weekend. It was a trip to Mile High that did them wrong when they opened with a 7-5 victory on Friday but then lost 5-3 on Saturday and were edged 2-1 yesterday by their hosts, the Colorado Rockies. San Diego’s offense has once again been the bane of their existence as they dwell in the lower third of the four major statistical categories; team batting average, runs scored, slugging percentage and on base percentage.

Twenty-five-year-old Colin Rea (3-2, 4.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) will make his third start since being summoned from Triple-A El Paso on June 2nd as he seeks to build upon a solid start against the Braves where he allowed three runs on six hits over the course of seven innings en route to a 4-3 victory. In his previous outing he was tagged for six runs (five earned) on six hits in five plus innings of work that turned into a slugfest where Seattle muscled their way to a 16-13 decision in his first game since being recalled.

 

Betting Analysis
The truth be told neither team is particularly inspiring in this one. With the Marlins’ Wei-Yin Chin, we have a pitcher who is losing velocity off his fast ball and has been susceptible to watching his pitches get knocked out of the park as evidenced by the 11 home runs off him on the season that has resulted in 36 runs. On the other hand the Padres’ young hurler Colin Rea has been back and forth between Triple-A and the bigs with not a whole to hang his hat on.

But let’s face it, the Marlins have the better team here and I don’t believe their starter Chin will get worked, via home run balls, by a team that is in the bottom third of all MLB teams in terms of home runs. Here are a few other tidbits to chew on:

Marlins have won six of their last seven Monday games.

Padres have lost nine of their last 10 against teams with a winning record.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2991464, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Miami Marlins -119
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker