MLB Picks: Mariners vs. Red Sox Game Analysis

Steve Merril -

Wednesday, July 31, 2013 1:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 31, 2013 1:48 PM UTC

The Seattle Mariners and the Boston Red Sox play Game 2 of a 3-game series on Wednesday night. Let's breakdown the elements in this game and see what may affect our betting picks.

Check out Wednesday's Daily Baseball Betting Odds & Lines Report for a breakdown of today's games!

The Mariners (50-56, -4.9 Units) are at the beginning of a 6-game road trip; they lost 8-2 in Boston last night. The Red Sox (64-44, +12.8 Units) are on a 6-game home stand with Arizona coming to town after Seattle. The Mariners are 1-3 over their last four games while the Red Sox have won 3 of their last 4 games.

Boston is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) at home against Seattle this season. The Red Sox are 7-2 (+3.4 Units) at home against the Mariners over the last three seasons. Boston is 4-1 (+3.3 Units) versus Seattle overall this season.

Hisashi Iwakuma will get the start for Seattle while John Lackey takes the mound for Boston. Which one should you back in your MLB picks?

Don't forget to also read today's Daily Pitching Report for more analysis of the day's matchups!

Iwakuma (10-4): Has an impressive 2.87 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the season. However, those surface stats have a lot to do with Iwakuma pitching extremely well at home. On the road, Iwakuma’s ERA jumps up to 3.34 and his WHIP escalates to 1.18. Iwakuma has been an extremely lucky pitcher this season as he owns a 78% strand rate. With a number that high, regression is on the horizon for Iwakuma who owns a career 18.00 ERA and 2.67 WHIP against Boston.

Lackey (7-8): Has pitched much better than his record indicates. He owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Lackey has pitched incredibly well at home this season; he has a 1.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 47.3 innings pitched. Lackey is 15-10 in his career against Seattle with his teams going 19-11 (+3.6 Units) in those games.

Fenway Park: Boston’s home park plays pretty fair with a +105 park factor. However, with Iwakuma’s skills diminished away from his home park, we do not expect him to have much success tonight in Fenway Park. The Red Sox tagged Iwakuma for 6 runs on 8 eights in just 3 innings in Seattle three weeks ago. Lackey’s skills play well at home, especially since he owns a 50% ground ball rate this season. Lackey also has an impressive 102/24 K/BB ratio this season, including a 50/7 K/BB ratio at home.

Iwakuma Projection: Based on the underlying skills and advanced metrics I use, Iwakuma shows a line of 3.1 earned runs, a 4.28 ERA and 1.39 WHIP against the Red Sox in this game.

Lackey Projection: Using the same system, Lackey shows a line of 2.6 earned runs, a 3.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP against the Mariners in this game.

Mariners: Seattle’s offense is currently in terrible form. Over their last seven ballgames, the Mariners are hitting just .229 as a team while averaging only 3.3 runs per game. Seattle has also struggled on the road. In 49 games (21-28, -2.2 Units), the Mariners are hitting just .232 while scoring only 3.9 runs per game.

Red Sox: Boston’s offense comes into tonight’s game in good form. The Red Sox have scored 21 runs over their last four games while putting up 36 hits as a team. Overall, Boston is 35-20 (+6.2 Units) at home this season; they hit .284 as a team and score 5 runs per game.


Bottom Line: MLB odds on this game shows Boston -150 and Seattle +140 with a total of 8.5 'Over' -105. The total looks to be spot on, but we do see some good value with Lackey and the Red Sox in this gamem for your sports picks. The line is much cheaper than it should be, especially since Lackey has pitched much better than his numbers show and Iwakuma’s numbers are the result of his home park. Boston is strong at home and Seattle is weak on the road so we’ll lay the price with the Red Sox in this game on Wednesday night.

MLB Pick: Bet Boston -150 on the money line at Bet365

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