MLB Picks for Mariners vs. Dodgers: 'Over/Under' Predictions

Darin Zank

Monday, April 13, 2015 6:45 PM GMT

Some people placing MLB picks think Seattle has a chance to make the playoffs this season, but we're not so sure. We share our predictions here for their three-game inter-league series with the Dodgers in LA.

Mariners-Dodgers Betting Odds
As of mid-Monday morning the best price we could find on Los Angeles with Brandon McCarthy was the -123 offered at BetOnline, while Seattle and lefty James Paxton could be gotten at +116 at BetDSI. Also, every book we checked with was listing the MLB odds total on tonight's game at seven runs.

 

M's-Dodgers: Series Set-Up
Los Angeles began this season by taking two of three games at home from San Diego, but just dropped two of three games in Arizona over the weekend. The Dodgers fell 4-3 on Friday and 6-0 on Saturday, going down as -185 favorites with Clay Kershaw pitching. LA then fended off the sweep with a 7-4 victory Sunday.

The Dodgers rapped out 16 hits Sunday, seven for extra bases. However, while they took a 7-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth, the bullpen then gave up four runs just to make things interesting.

Seattle opened this season by dropping two of three games at home to the Angels, but then just took two of three games from the A's in Oakland over the weekend. The Mariners got blown out Friday 12-0, but won Saturday 5-4 in 11 innings and took Sunday's series rubber match 8-7 in 10 innings.

Seattle trailed Sunday 3-0 into the sixth, scored seven runs over the next two innings to take a lead, saw closer Fernando Rodney blow that lead in the bottom of the ninth, then won it on newcomer Nelson Cruz' solo homer in the top of the tenth.

So while the Mariners scored just seven runs through their first four games this season, they've tallied 13 runs over their last two contests.

These two teams last met back in 2012, when the Dodgers took two of three games up at Safeco.

Check out our top MLB picks on the Money Line for Monday.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up
McCarthy will be making his second start of this season for his new team. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs and nine hits, including a pair of dongs, in five-plus innings against San Diego, but got the win because the Dodgers scored seven runs for him.

Last year McCarthy was terrible in 18 starts for Arizona, going just six-for-18 on quality starts, but then was good in 14 starts with the Yankees, coming up with nine quality outings. The Diamondbacks went just 4-14 in McCarthy's starts, but the Yanks went 8-6 for him.

McCarthy hasn't started against Seattle since 2012, when he was with Oakland.

Paxton will be making his second start of this season, after holding the Angels to two runs and four hits through six innings of a 2-0 loss to the Angels last Tuesday.

Last year Paxton went seven-for-13 on quality starts, giving up 60 hits in 74 innings, walking 29 while striking out 59. Seattle went 8-5 in Paxton's starts last year, with the totals splitting 6-6.

An important piece of information to keep in mind when preparing MLB picks is that this will be Paxton's first-ever start against the Dodgers.

 

Key Stats
Seattle ranked 14th in the Majors last season in team OPS against right-handed pitching at .687.

LA ranked 11th in team OPS last year against lefties at .716.

 

Betting Trends
Seattle went 55-52 against right-handed starters last season.

LA went 26-16 last year against lefties.

Games played at Dodger Stadium last year averaged 7.8 runs per game.

 

Injury Update
The Dodgers are down a couple of third basemen, after both Justin Turner and Juan Uribe got hurt over the weekend. But replacement Alex Guerrero, making his first ML start, went three-for-five with a homer and four RBI Sunday.

 

M's-Dodgers Game 1 Pick
Neither lineup is very familiar with either opposing starter, which to us creates the makings for a low-scoring affair. So we like the UNDER on tonight's game.

Free MLB Pick: UNDER seven runs at 5Dimes