Here's our MLB pick for the rubber match Wednesday night, after the LA Angels of Anaheim evened this series against the Seattle Mariners at a game apiece with a 5-4 victory Tuesday night.
Wednesday's Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Game 3 Betting Odds
Most of Wednesday's MLB Odds market opened Los Angeles and CJ Wilson at around -135 over Seattle and fellow lefty Roenis Elias, with a total of 7.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting.
Game 2 Recap
Los Angeles took an early 2-0 lead on an Albert Pujols homer, but Seattle took a 4-2 lead with three runs in the top of the eighth. The Angels then tied the game with a pair of runs in the bottom of that frame, then won it when rookie Carlos Perez – in his first career ML game – hit his first career ML homer leading off the bottom of the ninth.
LA starter Garrett Richards limited the Mariners to one run and five hits through seven innings Tuesday night, then watched as the M's rallied against reliever Joe Smith, who was charged with three runs while getting just one out.
Seattle starter James Paxton came up with his second straight quality outing, holding the Angels to two runs and four hits through seven innings. His bullpen then gave up three runs while getting three outs.
Los Angeles won as a -140 betting favorite, and the game played OVER its total of eight runs as the teams combined to score six runs in the last two innings.
Wilson is three-for-five on quality starts this season. Last Friday he held San Francisco to two runs – one earned – in seven innings, and just before that he held Texas to one run through 5 2/3 innings. On the season Wilson has allowed 10 earned runs and 35 base-runners (hits + walks) through 33 innings; thanks to some poor run support Los Angeles is just 2-3 in Wilson's starts, while the totals have skewed toward the UNDERS by a 4-1 margin.
Since the beginning of last season Wilson has started five times against Seattle (including a very nice winning effort back on April 7), going four-for-five on QS, allowing 10 runs and 31 base-runners through 34 1/3 innings; the Angels only won two of those five starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS 4-1.
Keep in mind when preparing your MLB picks today that by our tough standards Elias is 0-for-two on quality starts this season, and Seattle has lost both his starts, but he hasn't been that bad. Ten days ago he held Minnesota to two runs and six hits through 5 2/3 innings, which is only an out away from “quality,” and last Friday he gave up three runs and six hits in six innings against Houston, with eight strikeouts. So on the season, which for Elias began in the Minors, until he took over for the injured Hisashi Iwakuma in the rotation, he's allowed five runs and 18 base-runners through 11 2/3 innings. And both his starts have stayed UNDER the totals.
Last year, as a rookie, Elias started three times against the Angels, giving up nine runs and 20 base-runners through 14 1/3 innings; the Mariners lost two of those three games, and two played OVER the totals.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
The Angels own a .321 team OBP and a .410 team slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season, while the Mariners own a .301 OBP but a .427 slugging percentage against lefties.
Game 3 Free Picks
Wilson stymied Seattle's sticks the last time they met, and there's not much to indicate he won't do something similar Wednesday night. Also, Wilson and Elias are a combined 6-1 on the UNDERS this season.
Free MLB Picks: Los Angeles -134 at Heritage and UNDER 7.5 runs (+100) at WagerWeb
Tuesday's Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
Mariners-Angels Game 2 Betting Odds
Some books we consulted opened LA and Garrett Richards as high as -160 over Seattle with lefty James Paxton, but in the early betting action that price dropped down to the -140 range. And the total on tonight's game opened at 7.5.
Game 1 Recap
Seattle's Nelson Cruz broke a scoreless tie with a solo homer in the top of the seventh inning Monday night, propelling the Mariners to a 3-2 victory. Cruz now leads the Majors with 14 dingers.
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez held the Angels to one run on six hits through seven innings, picking up his fifth victory of this season already, lowering his ERA to 1.73.
Los Angeles starter Matt Shoemaker gave up three runs and four hits – three of which were solo homers – through 7 1/3 innings, walking one while whiffing 10.
In fact, all five runs Monday night scored on solo home runs.
The Angels have now scored a total of eight runs over their last four games.
Seattle won as a -130 post-time favorite Monday night, but to our dismay missed covering on the run line when closer Fernando Rodney gave up a – you guessed it – solo homer to David Freese with one out in the top of the ninth. Monday's game also, to our satisfaction, stayed UNDER its MLB Odds total of seven runs.
On a personnel note the Mariners placed OF Austin Jackson on the DL with a sprained ankle.
Richards is two-for-three on quality starts this season. Last Thursday he held Oakland to one run through six innings, and just before that he limited Texas to two runs through seven innings. On the season Richards has given up six earned runs and 22 base-runners (12 hits + 10 walks) through 18 innings. The Angels are 2-1 in Richards' starts, with the totals going 1-2.
Richards started twice against Seattle last year and was tough, giving up just one run and four hits through 15 innings, walking four while striking out 13. Los Angeles split those two games, and both games played UNDER.
Paxton is two-for-five on quality starts this year, but is coming off his best performance of the season, after holding Houston to two runs and five hits through seven innings last Thursday, with two walks and seven strikeouts. That came as a welcome reversal, after allowing 13 ER over his previous three starts. On the season Paxton has allowed 17 ER and 38 base-runners through 26 2/3 innings; Seattle is 1-4 in Paxton's starts, with the totals going 3-2.
Paxton has started against the Angels five times in his short ML career, including a quality effort one month ago, allowing nine ER and 25 base-runners through 29 1/3 innings; the Mariners are 3-2 in those starts, with the totals going 2-3.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
Seattle owns a .284 team OBP and a .396 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
LA owns a .333 OBP and a .432 slugging percentage against lefties.
Game 2 Free Pick
If Richards can pitch around Cruz he should be alright. We'll give him the edge in the pitching match-up, and we will place our MLB Picks with the Angels to take tonight's game. Also, both starters own good numbers against tonight's opponents, so we're thinking this will be another low-scoring affair.
Free MLB Picks: Los Angeles -132 at BetOnline and UNDER 7.5 runs (+100) at GT Bets
Monday's Series Opener
By: Ron Patrick
Mariners-Angels Game 1 Betting Odds
Most baseball books opened Seattle and Felix Hernandez at around -135 over Anaheim and Matt Shoemaker, with a total of seven runs. In the early betting many books then dropped that price about a nickel, to around -130.
Also, while the Mariners were favored to win Game 1, MLB Odds from BetOnline were chalking the Angels at -130 to win this series, with Seattle getting +110.
Mariners-Angels Series Set-Up
Seattle just got swept four games in Houston over the weekend, losing 3-2 Thursday, 4-3 Friday, 11-4 Saturday and 7-6 Sunday. The Mariners trailed the series finale 6-1, rallied to tie the game at 6-6, but lost when reliever Carson Smith gave up a solo homer to Evan Gattis in the bottom of the eighth.
Just before that Seattle had swept three games from Texas, but just prior to that the M's had lost back-to-back series to Minnesota and the Astros. On the season Seattle has won only three of eight series.
The Mariners have also played eight UNDERS in their last 11 games, simply because they've been playing some low-scoring games.
Anaheim just got swept three games at San Francisco over the weekend, losing 3-2 Friday, 5-4 Saturday and 5-0 Sunday. For the series the Angels managed just 16 hits, just three of those for extra bases.
Just before that Anaheim had taken two of three games from Oakland, and just before that it had taken two of three games from the Rangers. So the Angels had been playing some decent ball, heading into Frisco.
Big-picture, at 11-14 the Angels occupy second place in the AL West, seven games behind first-place Houston, while the Mariners, at 10-15, are in fourth place, eight games out.
This is the second meeting between these teams this season; back a month ago the Angels took two of three games from the Mariners down in Anaheim. Two of those games stayed UNDER the totals, as the teams combined to score just 15 runs in the series.
Last year Seattle took the season series from the Angels 12 games to seven.
Shoemaker, by our strict standards, is 0-for-four on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings against Oakland, but just before that he got nicked by those same A's for five runs in just three innings. For the season Shoemaker has allowed 14 runs and 30 base-runners (25 hits + five walks) in 21 innings; Anaheim is 3-1 in Shoemaker's starts, with the totals leaning toward the OVERS by a 3-0-1 margin.
Since the beginning of last season Shoemaker has started three times against Seattle, including a decent effort back on April 8, and made one relief appearance. Over that span he held the Mariners to seven runs and 16 base-runners through 21 1/3 innings; the Angels won all three of his starts, and all three of those starts played OVER the totals.
Hernandez is four-for-five on quality starts this year. Last Wednesday he held Texas to two runs through 6 2/3 innings, and just before that he threw a five-hit shutout against Minnesota. On the season Hernandez has allowed just seven runs and 28 base-runners in 34 2/3 innings; Seattle is 5-0 in the King's starts, with the totals skewing toward the UNDERS 4-1.
Since the beginning of last season Hernandez has started against the Angels six times, including a winning effort back on April 6. Over that span he held Anaheim to four ER and 26 base-runners through 41 innings; the Mariners won all six of those games, with the totals going 5-1 on the UNDERS.
Monday's Batting Splits
Seattle owns a .288 team OBP and a .394 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
Anaheim owns a pathetic .279 OBP and a .318 slugging percentage against righties this year.
Seattle OF Austin Jackson suffered a sprained ankle Sunday and is very questionable for Monday's game.
Mariners-Angels Game 1 Free Pick
Hernandez has dominated Anaheim recently, so we can't help but lean toward Seattle. And in noticing that the Mariners have won four of his five starts this season by at least two runs, we're going to gamble and take the M's on the run line. Also, these two lineups have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, so we're thinking UNDER on the total for our MLB Picks.
Free MLB Picks: Seattle +130 on the run line at BetDSI and UNDER 6.5 runs (+105) at WagerWeb