MLB Picks for Mariners vs. Angels Game 3: Bet Run Total as C.J. Wilson Pitches Through Elbow Injury

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 6, 2015 1:03 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 6, 2015 1:03 PM UTC

We have found the edge in Wednesday's MLB Odds, focusing on Mariners vs. Angles in Game 3. Both offenses have sprayed line drives all over the place in the last few games with little to show for it.

Mariners vs. Angels 3-Game Series
The Seattle Mariners continue their 11-game road trip in Anaheim on Wednesday night against the Angels in the final game of their 3 game series. Both teams are chasing the Houston Astros in the AL West, who were 8 games up in the division as of yesterday (7 if they lose to Texas again). I heard an interesting statistic about that large of a division lead that early – the last time it happened was to the Mariners who went on to win 116 games in 2001. Although I suggested the Astro’s would win more than 75.5 games in my sabermetrics futures article before the season started, I think this comparison is a little far-fetched. However, a comparison of Jose Altuve to a 2001 era Ichiro would be a keen one.


Pitching Matchup
Enough about the Astros for now. In this game we have C.J. Wilson going for the Angels and Roenis Elias taking the mound for the Seattle Mariners. The last time Wilson pitched against the Mariners was early this year and he put together and excellent performance by pitching 8 innings of shutout ball. Elias is coming off of an acceptable start in a losing effort in Houston, giving up 3 earned runs while striking out eight over 6 innings. The opening odds have the veteran at home, Wilson, favored on the money line at -132, with the MLB Odds O/U total at 7.5.

A quick weather check in Los Angeles for tomorrow indicates a very pleasant game time temp of 67F.

There’s probably a more preferable way to work than throw a baseball as hard as you can every fifth day, have fluid drained from your elbow, then do it all again five days later. Hmmm… Five. Five = Cinco. Cinco + May = well it equals a headache.  But I digress. C.J. Wilson of the Angels is pitching through an elbow injury that will eventually require surgery. Although is it really an injury if you are putting up a 2.73 ERA through five starts? More like a disease. Basically Wilson is defying physics at the moment and at some point he’s going to go all Newton on us and the laws will not go in his favor. His advanced stats show no change in velocity at all; however, C.J. is throwing his curveball at the lowest rate since 2010. Too early to tell if this is because of his injury or some other kind of adjustment. I literally can’t throw a curveball, but if I had a boo-boo on my elbow I’d think I would avoid it as well.

We’d probably all be talking more about Roenis Elias more if he would have gotten some decent run support over his first two starts for the injured Hisashi Iwakuma. He’s pitched fairly well, although giving up a few dingers in his last game versus Houston. He grades as a #3-4 starter with above average strikeout ability. Looking at this matchup versus the Angels, he has been hit around by a few batters in the expected lineup (Pujols, Freese, Cowgill). Whenever Mike Trout hasn’t hit you well over the first game or two I’m just going to default to the explanation, “he’s due.” Look for Trout to get his tonight as well.


Baseball Betting Verdict 
After a tough matchup last night against Garrett Richards, I think Seattle will be relishing a matchup versus C.J. Wilson. In the same light, Roenis Elias won’t elicit the same respect as James Paxton did last night for the Mariners. Both of these offenses have hit the ball well over the last few games, just right at defenders. One of these clubs is going to start finding holes in the defense tonight, which is why I’m taking over 7.5 runs as my MLB pick for this game.

The MLB Pick:  Over 7.5 +107 at Pinnacle

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