MLB Picks: Make Some Cash This Afternoon On Mets vs. Brewers

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, June 12, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 12, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Let's analyze the MLB odds and see if the Brew Crew can salvage a series split against the New York Mets this afternoon at Miller Park and cash our MLB Pick on the game.

It seems that people are more critical when you win on an enormous MLB Odds favorite than if you lose on a big underdog. The case in point is the big dog that I backed in my MLB Picks and lost - with a six-game winning streak on the line - versus the big favorite that cashed for me yesterday. The Reds (+154) were edged 3-2 on Thursday and my streak evaporated. I felt there was plenty of betting value on Cincinnati but then the age old axiom returned to remind me that there is no value in losing.

Yesterday the Cubs had every reason to be the heavy road favorite with Jake Arrieta on the hill, after taking his first loss of the season, and the Cubs losing to the lowly Braves the night before. Motivation was there in spades, as was a decidedly unfair pitching matchup in favor of Chicago. I grabbed the Cubs -275 and bet them on the run line - 1 ½ (-155) for a double dip of heavy chalk. The Cubs rewarded my faith in isolating spots no matter the risk and cashed with an effortless 8-2 win. We notched two units and are now sitting pretty, cashing at plus 67 percent on the season!


New York Mets (34-27, -1.55 units)
Mets' pitching was victimized by the long ball yesterday as they dropped a 7-4 decision to the Brewers and watched their three-game winning streak vanish. But perhaps of even more concern is the back injury to valuable second baseman Neil Walker. Walker was hit in the chest with a one-hopper two days earlier and then experienced tightness in his back yesterday which caused him to exit after the fourth inning in Saturday's loss.

Young southpaw Steven Matz (7-2, 2.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)  has been a lucky charm for the Mets this season as he is 11-2 dating back to last season and boasts a 4-1 mark and a sparkling 1.67 ERA on the road this year. Matz has met the Brewers only once and that resulted in a 3-2 New York victory in April of this year.

Milwaukee Brewers (29-33, --2.1 units)
Ryan Braun made sure to smash his 15 game hitless streak as hard as he smashed his two home runs yesterday. Those pair of long balls plus three more from the Brewers' lineup insured that the home team would walk away winners and sure enough they did. Their 7-4 victory did little to bridge the enormous gap between them and the divisional leaders, the Chicago Cubs, which sits at a whopping 14 games.

Milwaukee will counter with Zach Davies (4-3, 4.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) who returns to the mound after taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Athletics on Tuesday. Ultimately Davies gave up two runs on a pair of hits en route to the Brewers' 5-4 victory. Davies only start in his career versus the Mets came earlier this season when he was tagged for four runs on five hits in a 5-4 defeat.


Betting Analysis
Neither team is particularly ferocious at the plate with the Mets in the bottom third of team batting average (.233), runs scored (226) and on base percentage (.310) while the Brewers share residence with them in runs scored (254), team batting average (.244) and slugging percentage (.397). But one thing the Brewers can do is get on base as evidenced by their 9th ranked on base percentage of .326. Couple that with the fact that Ryan Braun's bat has suddenly perked up coupled with the presence of the always dangerous Chris Carter who is even more lethal at home when considering 12 of his 16 dingers this season have come at the expense of the short porches at Miller Park.

I understand the Mets' Steven Matz has been brilliant on the road but Miller Park is a different breed of cat...or should I say park. I am not afraid of the Mets lineup one iota and believe the Brew Crew's starter Zach Davies has the chops to handle them. I like the way Milwaukee came alive yesterday and the fact that New York will most likely be without Neil Walker in this one, adding to their injury list. This matchup is close but the oddsmakers are generously handing the home team +120. I'll take it and like it!

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MLB Pick: Milwaukee +120
Best Line Offered:  at BetOnline
MLB Record: 33-16, +17.26 units

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