MLB Picks: Make A Home-run Bet Taking The 'Under' For Mariners vs. Yankees

Kevin Stott

Saturday, April 16, 2016 12:48 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 16, 2016 12:48 PM UTC

A-Rod and the Yankees will look to even up the  MLB odds in their 3-game series with the Mariners at Yankee Stadium on Saturday afternoon when two Acestake center stage in The House That Ruth Built.

Odds Overview
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees [Saturday 18:05] (YES, ROOT-Northwest, MLB Extra Innings, Directv 213, Directv 631, Directv 687 (US), 1:05 p.m. EDT/10:05 a.m. PDT): The New York Yankees send left-hander CC Sabathia (1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) to the mound to face right-hander Félix Hernández (0-1, 0.69 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) and the Seattle Mariners in Game 2 of this AL inter-divisional series at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx on Saturday afternoon.

The Mariners won Game 1, 7-1 on Friday night. Offshore Oddsmakers have the visiting Mariners priced as -127 Road favorites with the host Yankees priced at +118 in the rare role of Home underdogs (Heritage) with the game’s Total (Runs) set at 8 'Under' -120 (The Greek).

The Run Line MLB odds sees King Félix and the Mariners -1½ priced at +130 and CC and the Yankees +1½ at -150 (The Greek). The First 5 Innings numbers had yet to be put up either Offshore or here in Las Vegas where it's been really chilly so far this Spring.

Seattle Mariners Preview
The Seattle Mariners (4-6, 2-5 Road, W2) and new Manager Scott Servais got a great Pitching performance on Friday night in the series opener from Nathan Karns and the M’s Relievers did an absolutely fantastic job, allowing just 1 Hit, 1 Walk and 0 Runs in 4 full Innings of relief. Bravo. Seattle’s Starting Lineup for Game 1 was LF Norichika Iota, DH Seth Smith, 2B Robinson Cano, RF Nelson Cruz, 3B Kyle Seager, 1B Adam Lind, C Chris Iannetta, CF Leonys Martin and SS Ketel Marte with Karns getting the start for the Mariners (33/1 to win World Series, Bet365).

The hot-hitting Iannetta (.320) was 3-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI led the way but it was the Seattle Pitching staff which was the real story Friday and if this team can have Hernández (9-6, 3.18 ERA Lifetime vs Yankees, 5-1, 1.38 ERA at the new Yankee Stadium), Japanese sensation Hisashi Iwamura and Karns all pitching like they have been, then opponents are going to have trouble scoring Runs against this M’s team and the 'Under' will start being worth a daily look.


New York Yankees Analysis
The Yankees (4-5, 2-2 at Home) suddenly went from 4-2 to 4-6 with their 3rd straight Loss on Friday night, and lack of Offense is a real big part of the reason why this team has been struggling. Five Runs in 3 games is not the kind of stuff Mickey Mantle or Lou Gehrig would approve of. And now the Bronx Bombers get to face Félix Hernández.

In Game 1 of this series on Friday in The Bronx, New York AL could only muster out 6 Hits—2 of them by Brett Gardner, including a solo HR—and Manager Joe Girardi had a Staring Lineup of CF Jacoby Ellsbury, LF Brett Gardner, 1B Mark Teixeira, C Brian McCann, RF Carlos Beltran, DH Dustin Ackley, 2B Starlin Castro, SS Didi Gregorius, 3B Chase Headley with Luis severino getting the start.

In their 3-game Losing skid, the Yankees (25/1 to win World Series, at BetVictor) have scored just 1, 2 and 2 Runs and have been outscored 18-5 by the Blue Jays and Mariners. Woe is thee.

Must Read: Jason's Lake Prediction On Mariners vs. Yankees

Series Trends, Relevant Starting Pitchers Trends, Umpire Rotation, Weather Forecast, Thoughts and Game Pick
The slumping Yankees are 5-12 their L17 overall and just aren’t hitting, making a Fade on the Bronx Bombers and the 'Under' first-looks now in all of their games at this point in Father Time.

New York is also just 5-11 in Sabathia’s L16 pitching starts (61-30 Sabathia’s L91 Home starts), quite the opposite of the days when backing the rotund Lefty when the Yankees (4-10 L14 on Grass) gave him the pill was an automatic thing for bettors, although the Yankees are 4-1 in CC’s L5 starts—and a dynamic 11-1 in his L12 starts against Seattle—and do seem to play better as a team when he’s going.

Trend-wise with the Total, the 'Over' is 25-8-3 in the L36 Game 2’s of Mariners’ series, the 'Over' is 8-2 in the M’s L10 Saturday games, the 'Over' is 14-6 in the L20 Seattle Road games and the 'Over' is 4-1 in the mariners L5 against the AL East. And the Weather forecast for The Bronx on Saturday afternoon? Mainly Sunny, 66° with NE Winds of 9 mph, so perfect Baseball weather for mid-April for The Big Apple.

In the L11 meetings in this series, the Yankees are an impressive 8-3 while the 'Under' is 6-4-1 in those 11 games. With Seattle 1-4 in its L5 King Félix starts against New York, it’s hard to suggest backing the Mariners even with the Yankees struggling so much and with a 2-1 scoreline the last time Sabathia (2.61 ERA in 162 Innings Lifetime vs Yankees), and Hernández dueled (July 17, 2015 at Yankee Stadium) and the Mariners being the best opponent ERA-wise lifetime for Sabathia, backing the MLB pick of the 'Under' (19-6-3 L28 meetings) seems like the most logical approach here in an early Saturday start.

This could be a 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 game, even with the nice Weather. Umpires: Home Plate—Mike Winters, First Base—Mark Wegner, Second Base—Marty Foster, Third Base—Mike Muchlinski.

Predicted Final Score: Mariners 2 Yankees 1
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Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 8 -120
Best Line Offered: at The Greek

MLB Record This Week: 2-0 — Last Week: 2-4 — YTD: 4-4

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