MLB Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Joe Freda

Sunday, September 8, 2013 2:15 PM GMT

The Cincinnati Reds moved to 5-1 in their last six games with Saturday’s 4-3 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers, collecting as minus 113 home ‘chalk.’ What are our MLB picks for the series finale?

Sunday’s MLB betting has the set’s finale, with Reds righty Homer Bailey (10-10, 3.42 ERA) meeting Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw (14-8, 1.89 ERA).

Reds, Frazier rally

Reds third baseman Todd Frazier poked a walkoff single in Saturday’s 10th frame, driving in mate Billy Hamilton. Cincinnati’s Cesar Izturis and Joey Votto united to hit 5-for-7, while Votto walked three times.

Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig cracked a homer as part of a 1-for-4 day, giving his side an early 3-2 lead. Los Angeles’ Hanley Ramirez drilled an RBI-single, while Adrian Gonzalez and A.J. Ellis hit a combined 6-for-9.

Bailey shuts down Cardinals

Bailey notched his fifth win in seven starts with Tuesday’s 1-0 victory for Cincinnati as a 141 home favorite against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Texas native stood in for seven innings, holding St. Louis to two hits.

Reds relievers Manny Parra and Aroldis Chapman logged a hold and save, respectively, with Chapman tossing three strikeouts in the final frame. Cincinnati’s lineup came away with five hits, while mates Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce logged 0-for-4 nights. 

Kershaw wins in slugfest

Kershaw escaped with his third straight road win in Monday’s 10-8 triumph for Los Angeles over the Colorado Rockies. The 25-year-old allowed five runs on 11 hits, departing after five frames.

Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier poked a two-run homer as part of a 3-for-4 day, while Juan Uribe and Carl Crawford hit a combined 5-for-10. Kershaw helped his own cause with two RBIs, while Kenley Jansen anchored four relievers for his 25th save.

Back the Dodgers as road ‘chalk’

Kershaw opened as a 127 road favorite on Bet365’s MLB odds board, while the ‘total’ was first listed at seven (UNDER minus 120). Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips is listed as “probable” after missing Saturday’s game with a quad injury.

I am adding Kershaw and the Dodgers to my sports picks, looking for Don Mattingly’s club to end the Reds’ winning streak here.

Kershaw survived his start at Coors Field and has tossed some tight ball overall on opposing fields. The three-time All-Star has given up just three homers in 99 1/3 IP away from home, holding foes to a 0.93 WHIP and .243 OBP.

Bailey found himself on the losing end of July’s duel against Kershaw, giving up a homer to Hanley Ramirez in a 2-1 defeat for Cincinnati. Los Angeles’ Adrian Gonzalez has hit 9-for-18 in his career against the righty, including five long balls and two doubles.

Los Angeles has done its share of damage against marquee hurlers, cashing at 11-3 in its last 14 spots facing starters with below a 1.15 WHIP. Ramirez and Co. are 6-1 in Kershaw’s last seven starts as a road favorite, while going 12-4 in their last 16 contests that followed a defeat.

Look for the Dodgers to drive in just enough octane here, while handing Cincinnati another losing MLB Picks ticket in the team’s 3-9 mark over Bailey’s last 12 outings as a home dog.

MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -127 at Bet365