MLB Picks: Lincecum & Giants vs. Reds to go 'Under'

Joe Freda

Tuesday, July 2, 2013 11:42 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 2, 2013 11:42 AM UTC

Why have we decided to add the 'Under' to our MLB picks when the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds collide tonight? Let's breakdown this matchup and uncover where the best value lies on the odds boards.

Tuesday’s MLB slate has the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants continuing their series, following Monday’s 8-1 triumph for the Reds as 148 home favorites. The matchup has a pair of right-handed starters squaring off, with Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (4-6, 3.88 ERA) facing San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum (4-8, 4.64 ERA).

Where do we believe that the best value lies for our MLB picks in tonight's matchup?

Reds, Frazier roll in opener 

Reds third baseman Todd Frazier cracked a three-run homer to give his club a 7-0 lead in third inning, hitting 2-for-3. The rain-shortened affair saw Cincinnati edge out the Giants in hits, 11-2, with Reds starter Bronson Arroyo lasting the six-frame distance. 

San Francisco’s Brandon Belt drilled a solo shot for his club’s only run, while Gregor Blanco and Marco Scutaro were held to 0-for-3 nights. Giants starter Michael Kickham was lit up early for his staff’s loss, departing after the duel’s first 2 2/3 IP. 

Bailey and Co. blitzed

Bailey logged his second loss in three starts with Wednesday’s 5-0 defeat to the Oakland Athletics, failing to cash as a 111 road dog. The 27-year-old allowed four runs on six hits, tossing seven strikeouts over a six-inning stint. 

Cincinnati’s lineup was held to two hits, with Xavier Paul and Devin Mesoraco each logging a 1-for-3 day. Reds outfielder Jay Bruce struck out four times from the cleanup spot, leaving two men on base.

Lincecum outdueled in L.A. 

Tim Lincecum picked up his latest loss on the same day, with San Francisco falling to the Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-2. The four-time All-Star gave up four runs over 5 1/3 frames, with the Giants unable to rally as 174 road dogs. 

Giants first baseman Buster Posey cracked his 10th homer as part of a 3-for-4 afternoon. San Francisco’s Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval left six men on base, combining to hit 0-for-8.


Back the UNDER in Cincy 

The MLB odds first opened Bailey as a 156 home favorite, with early wagers on the Reds lifting the ‘chalk’ to minus 159. The ‘total’ was first set at 8 ½, moving flat after an initial 120 premium on the OVER.

I am adding the UNDER in this duel to Tuesday’s sports picks, looking for both starters to keep this tight. 

Bailey returns home here, where the righty has given up just two homers in 51 IP. The span’s latest four starts at Great American Ball Park have had the UNDER cash at 2-1-1, with Bailey holding foes to 13 earned runs over 26 frames of action. 

Lincecum has given up eight earned runs over his last three road outings (16 IP), surrendering no long balls in that stretch. “The Freak” faces a Reds club that has seen the UNDER cash at 7-1-1 in its last nine duels against right-handed starters. 

Cincinnati was held to one run over Lincecum’s pair of relief appearances against its lineup this past October, logging just three hits in the span’s combined 6 1/3 frames. The same series saw Bailey hold San Francisco to one run in a seven-inning outing, while giving up two runs over 6 1/3 IP in last April’s home start against the Giants. 

Umpire Adrian Johnson is slated to call the balls and strikes, with the UNDER collecting at 6-2 in the Texas native’s last eight called games. Look for another affair here with some low octane, giving another cashed ticket to UNDER backers. 

MLB Picks:  UNDER 8 ½

Get Jeff Grant's take on this games pitching matchup here.

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