MLB Picks: Lester & Red Sox vs. Mariners

Jeff Grant

Monday, July 8, 2013 12:03 PM GMT

Monday, Jul. 8, 2013 12:03 PM GMT

The Boston Red Sox have won four of Jon Lester’s last five starts against the Seattle Mariners, as the two teams prepare to open up a four-game series Monday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting odds for this American League matchup at Safeco Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.

Still a division leader

Boston dropped its final two games against the Los Angeles Angels, but it still own a 4.5-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East standings.

The Red Sox are 9-9 as road underdogs of +100 to +125 this season, with the UNDER going 9-8-1 in that situation.

Impressive trip

Seattle went 4-2 on its recently completed six-game road trip against the Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers—marking the first time the club has won back-to-back trips away from home in 2013.

The Mariners are 9-12 at home when the betting total is 7 or less, with the OVER going 10-9-2 in those 21 opportunities.

Lester

Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester (8-4, 4.41 ERA) has led the club to three consecutive victories, but he didn’t earn a decision in a 2-1 home win over the San Diego Padres last time out, as he allowed just a single run and six hits over seven frames. 

The left-hander is 5-4 with a 5.48 ERA in 11 road outings, surrendering 10 home runs in 65.2 combined innings. 

Lester has compiled a 4-2 record and 3.58 ERA in nine career games versus the Mariners, including a 3-1 mark and 2.41 ERA in his last five efforts in the series.

Hernandez 

Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (8-4, 2.69 ERA) didn’t earn a decision in a 4-2 road win over the Texas Rangers last time out, as he allowed two runs and seven hits over seven innings of work.

The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.08 ERA in seven home outings, with opposing hitters batting .254 against him. 

In 12 lifetime appearances versus the Red Sox, Hernandez has put together a 6-2 record and 3.18 ERA, including a 3-1 mark and 3.83 ERA in six outings at this ballpark. 

[gameodds]3/238281/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Red Sox in the first five innings as one of their MLB picks Monday, as the Mariners are 0-9 in Hernandez’ last nine starts versus a team with a winning record. 

MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox +100 First Five Innings at BET365

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