MLB Picks: Lean on Road Dog Mets +187 vs Dodgers in NLDS

Darin Zank

Friday, October 9, 2015 4:52 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 4:52 PM UTC

The Dodgers went off this season among the favorites to win the NL pennant, the Mets, not so much. So it's the upstarts from New York against the heavies from LA.Check our MLB pick inside.

Mets vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on Los Angeles with lefty Clay Kershaw was the -190 offered at MatchBook, while New York with Jake deGrom was getting +189 at Pinnacle. Also, the total on this game sat at 5.5 goals – err, we mean “runs.”

Bigger-picture, 5Dimes was chalking LA at -190 to win this NLDS, with the Mets getting +165 to pull the upset.


The Situation
Los Angeles went off as a heavy 2/5 favorite to win the NL West this season, took an early lead in the divisional race, and while it struggled a bit near the end still claimed its third straight division title, with a record of 92-70.

New York, meanwhile, went off this season getting around 6/1 to win the NL East, then did just that, getting better as the season progressed, winning 90 games to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006.

New York took four of seven games from Los Angeles during the regular season, with the OVERS going 4-3.


Game 1 Mound Match-Up
Kershaw (16-7, 2.13), by our tough standards, is 24-for-33 on quality starts this year, and lights-out over his last couple of outings. Ten days ago he clinched the NL West title for Los Angeles by tossing a one-hit shutout at San Francisco, striking out 13; then last Sunday, in a meaningless game against San Diego, he threw 3 2/3 innings of shutout ball, whiffing seven. So of the last 38 batters he's faced, four have reached base, while 20 have struck out.

On the season Los Angeles is 20-13 in Kershaw's starts, with the UNDERS going 18-14.

In two starts this season against New York Kershaw gave up just one run and eight hits through 16 innings, with 18 strikeouts; the Dodgers managed to lose one of those games, while both games played UNDER.

deGrom (14-8, 2.54) is 22-for-30 on quality starts. He ran into a tough outing three starts ago, when he gave up six runs in five innings against Miami, but in two starts since then, including an abbreviated effort last Sunday in a meaningless game against Washington, he's allowed just one run through 10 innings, with 16 strikeouts.

On the season the Mets are 20-10 in deGrom's starts, with the OVERS going 16-13, in part because of some decent run support.

In his one start this season against LA deGrom threw 7 2/3 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks, whiffing eight, in a 3-2 New York victory back in July.


Game 1 Batting Splits
New York ranked 21st in the Big Leagues this season against left-handed pitching with a .312 team on-base percentage, and 13th with a .411 team slugging percentage.

LA, on the other hand, ranked 10th against right-handed pitching with a .322 team OBP and 11th with a .411 team slugging percentage.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Dodger Stadium this season leaned OVER by a 45-34 margin, even though they averaged just 7.5 runs, third-fewest among all ML ballparks. As always, oddsmakers have been posting some low totals on LA home games.


Mets-Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Free Picks
Kershaw is great, of course, but his playoff performances over recent seasons have left something to be desired. And as usual he's probably over-priced on today's betting line. Also, deGrom is nothing to sneeze at. So we like the value with New York for our free MLB pick on Game 1.


MLB Pick: Mets +187 at 5Dimes

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