MLB Picks: Koehler & the Marlins vs. Capuano & the Dodgers

Joe Freda

Sunday, May 12, 2013 4:08 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 12, 2013 4:08 PM UTC

The Los Angeles Dodgers evened up their set with the Miami Marlins, with Saturday’s 7-1 victory. Will the Dodgers be worth backing again as ‘chalk’ or does a play on the ‘total’ have more value?

Sunday afternoon’s MLB betting features the series’ rubber match, with Dodgers left-hander Chris Capuano facing Marlins righty Tom Koehler.

Capuano lit up by D-Backs

Capuano logged a second straight loss in Monday’s 9-2 defeat for Los Angeles to the Arizona Diamondbacks, failing to collect at minus 108 MLB odds. The 11-year veteran gave up five earned runs in a four-inning stint, allowing two homers as part of eight hits.

Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford cracked a long ball from the leadoff spot, finishing with a 1-for-4 night. Los Angeles’ Matt Kemp drove in his squad’s other run, while mate Adrian Gonzalez went 2-for-4.

The lopsided affair’s combined 11 runs jumped above the ‘total’ of seven by the fifth inning, making the OVER 2-0 in Capuano’s pair of starts. Los Angeles was edged out in hits by a 15-7 margin, while each side recorded one error.

Koehler makes first start

Koehler has begun the season with six relief appearances, moving to make his first start in this spot since last October’s loss to the New York Mets. The 26-year-old’s latest two outings came on the road, allowing four earned runs over four frames to the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.

Miami is playing the final matchup of a 10-game road trip, which has seen Mike Redmond’s club held to 2.9 RPG over the span’s first nine spots. Friday’s opener in Los Angeles saw the Marlins hold on for a 5-4 victory as 130 road dogs, with second baseman Derek Dietrich cracking his first MLB homer.

Miami’s disabled list includes top hitter Donovan Solano (.278 BA), who has been out of action since May 3 with a ribs injury. Marlins outfielder Justin Ruggiano has six homers this year, but has hit a subpar 2-for-16 in his last five games.

Back the UNDER in Los Angeles opened their MLB odds with Capuano as a 155 home favorite, with early wagers on Los Angeles lifting the premium to 160. ‘Total’ odds saw the number move to a flat 7 ½ after first listing the UNDER with a minus 115 lean.

I am backing the UNDER for my MLB picks here. It looks like it will be a tight duel here between these foes.

Capuano has held most members of the Marlins’ lineup to some low numbers, including a 2-for-16 combined mark for Miami’s Miguel Olivo and Placido Polanco. The UNDER has cashed at 9-3 in Los Angeles’ last 12 spots as a favorite of minus 150 to 200.

Koehler has logged a respectable 0.97 WHIP and .256 OBP in relief work this year, allowing no home runs in 11 1/3 IP. The Bronx native has given up just one hit in 3 1/3 frames of daytime action, while logging a trio of strikeouts.

The UNDER is 12-4 in Miami’s last 16 contests against a left-handed starter, while going 4-1 in the Marlins’ most recent five spots that came after a defeat. Umpire Chris Guccione has seen the UNDER collect at 4-2 in his last six called games, including a low-octane duel in last month’s 2-1 defeat for Miami against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Look for these UNDER trends to hold up here, ending the string of OVER tickets cashed in the series’ first two affairs.

Free Pick: UNDER 7 ½ at BET 365


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