History will repeat itself as Chicago Cubs face Cincinnati Reds in the first of a 4-game weekend set. Read more to find out if there's a valid reason to avoid choosing the Cubs as your MLB Pick.
Chicago Cubs (Arrieta) (-1 ½ R/-120) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Finnegan) 7:10 ET
We will back the Cubs off a loss (3-0), behind the CY Young arm of Jake Arrieta to get a resounding victory.
At 8-7, the Reds are a mild surprise based on their 64-98 record of last year and their 70 projected wins for this year. A 7-2 start on this field is part of the reason with 6 of those games coming in a 5-1 record vs. projected bottom-feeders, Philly and Colorado. The Reds enter tonight off a pair of victories vs. the Rockies, including 6-5 last night.
Normally, it is a positive to back MLB home dogs, following a victory, against a road favorite off a loss. And, there is always the danger that the Cubs will have a letdown, after they took 2 of 3 from St. Louis. In addition, Finnegan has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds with a record of 1-0, a 2.04 ERA and a .129 BAA. But, there are danger signs in his pitching log. Working 11 1/3 IP, the youngster has issued 9 free passes. That includes 5 IP in his recent 9-8 victory vs. St. Louis in which he allowed 4 runs on 4 hits on 4 walks and 5 IP.
The Cubs have come back to earth a bit, after their torrid start. In their 8-1 beginning, they averaged 7.1 RPG. Since that time, they have gone 3-3, averaging just 2.8 RPG. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore that the Cubs are the best team in baseball and the fact they have won 6 consecutive games against the Reds. Nor, can we have any doubt about the excellence of CY Young winner, Arrieta.
Arrieta has now pitched 23 consecutive quality starts with the Cubs winning the last 16 of those! In those games, Arrieta’s record is 19-1 with a 0.91 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP and a .156 BAA. As amazing is it may sound, those numbers are even better in his last 16 games, where Arrieta is 14-0 with a 0.70 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and .152 BAA.
We play this game on the run line, knowing that in the last 1+ years, 38 of 49 Cincinnati home losses have come by 2 or more runs (78%) and that this season, 10 of 11 Cubs’ victories have come by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Chicago Cubs tonight. However, if you're also looking for O/Us for this and other games, check out these two low-ccoring picks for tonight.
Free MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline