MLB Picks: Indians -1.5 Is The Sharp MLB Pick Against Red Sox

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, April 6, 2016 7:51 PM GMT

The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians meet for the 2nd time this week. Cold weather forced a delay of Monday’sopener to a Tuesday afternoon meeting, which saw the Red Sox emerge with a 6-2 victory behind the strong work of the 217 million dollar arm of David Price.

Boston Red Sox (Buchholz) at Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) (-1 ½ R, +165) 6:10 ET
Look for the switch to be flipped in the 2nd game of the series with a pitching matchup that strongly favors the Tribe.  

The peripatetic Boston Red Sox come off consecutive losing seasons after their sterling 97-65 mark in 2013.  Despite the lack of recent success, they are again ticketed for an 87 win season, expected to challenge Toronto and NYY for the AL East crown.  The success of tonight’s starter, Buchholz, will have a lot to do with that.  The often injured starter was struggling at the start of 2015.  Shortly before the ASB, however, he was on a 4-0 run with a 0.87 ERA.  But, he missed the last 80 games of the season with a balky elbow, making him “iffy” for a return to the excellence of the middle of last season.  I will begin the season with a “show-me” attitude. 

The Cleveland Indians are also scheduled for a winning season (their 4th straight), expected to win 86 times and edge the Royals for an AL Central supremacy.  If they are to do so, they will be led by the top of their rotation, including today’s starter, Carrasco.  Carrasco had a solid 2015 season with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 10.6Ks per 9 IP.   Most impressive were his last 10 starts in which he posted a 2.48 ERA and a .163 BAA.     

This matchup has a bit of a PERCEPTION/REALITY feel to it.  With fabled Fenway Park as their home turf, playing many memorable matchups in the AL East, having recent success in post-season play and from a home town which has produced many champions over the years, the PERCEPTION of the Boston Red Sox, and the aura, is simply much greater than that of the Tribe.  For, Cleveland toils in a city that is known for the lack of success by their sports teams, making their image a bit more tarnished.  In this case, the PERCEPTION of these teams is far different from tonight’s REALITY.  I like Cleveland to get the victory tonight in this pitching matchup and we will play it on the run line, knowing that 66 of 81 Cleveland wins last year, including 33 of 39 on this field were by 2 or more runs.  Tribe evens the series in style.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on Cleveland tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Indians -1.5
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