MLB Picks: Hottest Handicapper Offers Trio Of Totals For Tuesday

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, June 21, 2016 1:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 21, 2016 1:14 PM UTC

Our hot MLB handicapper (15-4-1 last 20 games) brings us a trio of Totals picks for your Tuesday MLB card. Read on as he uncovers superb value and seeks to keep his profitable trend alive.

I’m looking to improve on my 29-12-2 2016 MLB record coming into today, and there is no better way to do it than to increase the amount of picks I am making. Tonight I’m looking at totals for value, and I’ve found a few games that should be much better than a coin flip in a given direction.


Milwaukee vs. Oakland
Even though Oakland has cashed the under in 4 straight games coming into this one, they have done that while giving up 5.4 runs per game and a .318 batting average against in their last seven games. Milwaukee wished they had that kind of success, because in their last seven games they have given up 6.4 runs per game and a .331 batting average allowed. Regardless of who the starters are, these bullpens should be taxed even with the day off on Monday.

Starting for the Oakland Athletics in this one is Sonny Gray, who hasn’t been himself this year and is running a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP at home. Opposing him form the Milwaukee Brewers is Jimmy Nelson, who has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the road over 30 innings pitched. Over the last three starts Nelson has gotten completely lit up, allowing 14 runs over 13 innings pitched for a 9.69 ERA.

With the Brewers using the DH the value here is to take the Over of 8, with plus MLB odds value of +104.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993950, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
MLB Pick: Over 8 -115
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

Washington vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
This pick is all about recent trends of the starting pitchers, as they have both hit a rough patch of late. Tanner Roark takes the mound for the Washington Nationals, and he has posted a 5.06 ERA over his last three games and compiled a perfect 3-0 O-U record over those starts. Scott Kazmir has posted similar lines for the Dodgers, putting up a 5.79 ERA and another 3-0 O-U record over his last three starts.

On a team level, the Nationals have been hot on offense lately and have posted a 5-2 O-U record in their last seven games and are also 8-4 O-U against left-handed starters such as Kazmir. The Dodgers have scored 4.7 runs per game over their last seven games and 4.5 runs per game over the season against right-handed starters.

Add this all up and you have value on Over 7.5 runs in this game, while you can find it, at -117. This total will move to 8 runs soon.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992390, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
MLB Pick: Over 7.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Arizona vs. Toronto
This I believe is an example of an inflated line based on recent results that are not supported by the individual matchup. Although Toronto has been on fire offensively and have posted 7.4 runs per game and a 5-2 O-U record over their last seven games, they struggle against left-handed starters to the tune of 5-13 O-U and 3.9 runs scored per game on the year.

For Toronto, they have an excellent pitcher in Marco Estrada on the mound and he has been nails at home. Over six starts he has posted a 1.77 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 6.8 innings pitched per start over six games. The Under is a perfect 6-0 with Estrada on the mound at home in Toronto this year. Even Pat Corbin, who is starting for Arizona, has run a reverse home/away split this year. Corbin has compiled a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 7 games on the road this year.

This total is way out of line because of Toronto’s recent success at the plate, and the value is on Under 9 runs at plus odds of +105 for one of your MLB Picks.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992670, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
MLB Pick: Under 9
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
MLB 2016 Record: 29-12-2, +16.70 Units

comment here