MLB Picks: Hot Pitching vs. Ice Cold Hitting for NLDS Game 5

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 15, 2015 4:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 4:44 PM UTC

We’re going to examine the total in Thursday’s all important Game 5 of the NLDS. Go inside to read this highly informative betting preview article which culminates with our pick.

“Win or Go Home” at Dodger Stadium on Thursday
The Mets and Dodgers square off tonight in the deciding game of their NLDS. The opening pitch at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is slated for 8:07 PM ET. Tonight’s winner will face the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS. My focus in this article will be on the total. Current MLB betting odds indicate the total in this game is 6.0. These teams have gone 6-5 over the total in their eleven meetings this year.


The Starting Pitchers
Jacob DeGrom has been sizzling hot over his last three starts, posting a microscopic 0.53 ERA, and struck out 29 while walking just 3. DeGrom has made two starts versus today’s opponent (Dodgers) including the opening game of this NLDS. He was dominant in those two outings allowing 0 earned runs on 7 hits and had 21 strikeouts during 14 2/3 innings of work. This isn’t anything out of the ordinary this season for DeGrom. He’s compiled a stellar 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and has a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 31 starts.

Unless you’re living under a rock, or just don’t follow baseball, it’s widely known how good Zack Greinke of the Dodgers has been in 2015. He along with Jake Arrieta is the front runners for the “2015 National League Cy Young Award”. Greinke has a sensational 1.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in his 33 starts this year. He’s even been a touch better at home, evidenced by his 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 18 starts at Dodger Stadium. Greinke has faced the Mets three times this year, and had a superb 1.71 ERA in those outings.


Ice Cold Bats
The Mets have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last eight games. They’ve also amassed just 6 hits or less in eight of their previous nine contests. During their last seven outings, they have a miserable .170 team batting average in addition to a paltry .540 OPS.

The Dodgers OPS has been a bit better than the Mets over their past seven games at .673. However, that still qualifies as a well below average number. The Dodgers will be facing a pitcher (DeGrom) today that averages 7 strikeouts per start. They’ve gone 36-21 (63.2%) under the total this season when facing a pitcher averaging 5 or more strikeouts per start.


Final Thought
This has all the earmarks of a 1-0 or 2-1 type of game. I’m going to adhere to that notion when making one of my MLB picks today.

MLB Pick: Play the Mets & Dodgers Under 6.0 (-113) at Pinnacle

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