MLB Picks: Home Run Derby Best Value Bets

Steven Suarez

Monday, July 14, 2014 2:28 PM GMT

Looking to get involved in some Home Run Derby action? The MLB odds have been released for the annual competition and we've taken some time to break down some of our favorite picks, along with the attached lines.

The Top Dogs

Giancarlo Stanton (+300)
Here is your 2014 MLB odds overall favorite to take home the prize. Stanton is enjoying another terrific season and his raw power has been on display throughout the first half.

Having already hit 21 homers, many of which have come at a far from hitter-friendly Marlins Park, all eyes (and many MLB picks) are on Stanton to wow the crowd. His average HR distance has been incredible at 424 feet, so it's no surprise to see him topping the list on the baseball betting odds board.

 

Yasiel Puig (+500)
Puig's cooled off in the power department over the last couple of months. He was on fire in May, swatting eight homers (while hitting a stout .398), but he's only hit one long ball over his last 148 at-bats in June and July combined.

Still, Puig has a flair for the dramatic, so you wouldn't put it past him putting on a show. He's got plenty of pop in that bat of his and has had plenty of success (eight hits in 14 at-bats) at Target Field this season.

 

Yoenis Cespedes (+500)
Don't sleep on last year's winner. Cespedes' numbers may not exactly be the most outstanding when compared to the rest of the field (.246, 14 HR, 56 RBI), yet he's still on pace to set a career-high in homers and he's been here before.

We all know what Cespedes brings to the table in terms of power. In last year's competition he belted 32 total home-runs, 17 of which came in the first round, and he'd love to defend his crown as a National League representative.

 

Value Picks

Jose Bautista (+550)
The AL captain is in the midst of another impressive statistical season. Bautista has 17 homers on the year and has competed in the competition before, so that kind of experience could come in handy this evening.

Oddsmakers are liking Bautista's chances of competing for the crown, as he's quoted just behind Puig and Cespedes. He's the only AL representative whose HR average is over 400 feet and will want to set the tone as the captain.

 

Justin Morneau (+1000)
Morneau was selected by NL captain Troy Tulowitzki to appease the Minnesota fans, with the slugger set to return to the city where he played 11 seasons. It's sure to be a special moment for Morneau, but does he really have a chance to win?

Maybe, maybe not, but there's something to be said for familiarly and comfort with a ballpark. He's going to have the crowd in his corner (along with Brian Dozier) and he's hit some long homers (average of 402 feet) already in 2014. Morneau could be worth a small wager at such long odds.

 

Brian Dozier (+1200)
Our final intriguing value sports pick is Brian Dozier, who will have the crowd firmly in his corner. For a guy that weighs only 190 pounds, Dozier sure has shown a lot of power, having hit 19 homers in the first half of the season.

How has Dozier fared at Target Field so far? He's batting .272 with 9 HR and 21 RBI at home through the first half, so we'll have to see if he can replicate that kind of success in tonight's demanding competition.

 

Steven Suarez's Betting Advice
Free MLB Pick: Stanton (+300)
Best Value: Cespedes (+500)