MLB Picks: Home Run Derby 1st Round Prop Bets

Joe Catalano

Monday, July 15, 2013 2:10 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 15, 2013 2:10 PM UTC

Let's Look at Long Ball odds and who has the best shot at hitting the most homers in round one.


The 2013 Chevrolet Home Run Derby takes place tonight in CitiField with a few glitches. CitiField is known for being a pitcher’s park. Let’s see how this plays out as team captains David Wright and Robinson Cano have chosen their guys. Let's look at the Betting Odds.

Heat Advisory!

We all know that the ball carries more in extreme heat. We’ve hit the jackpot as it’s supposed to be 95 degrees or more all week long. We could actually see some longer shots than expected due to the sweltering heat.

Time to take a look at a few props for the Derby MLB picks and see who’s the best bet in round number 1 and who can hit the longest shot.

1st Rounds are the Best

If you remember Josh Hamilton pounding home runs at Yankee Stadium, it’s about the show and not the winner. A player can get very tired after a 1st round barrage of dingers and not have enough gas in the tank remaining to win the title.

The Teams

Cano’s Team is Dominant

Although CitiField is David Wright’s home ball park and the National League choices play there more often, Robbie Cano has the better squad. Let’s see who they’ve chosen?

American League- Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Prince Fielder

National League- David Wright, Michael Cuddyer, Pedro Alvarez, and Bryce Harper

Overall Assessment:

CitiField was adjusted to benefit the right-hander because David Wright couldn’t hit a home run in his own ball park. Wright is actually one of the weak links in this contest .

The American League has the league’s leading home run man in Chris Davis ( a right handed hitter) and Yoenis Cespedes, who is also right-handed and streaky. While Prince Fielder and Robinson Cano are both left-handed hitters, they’ve both excelled in this contest. The American League team has a decisive advantage in this contest.

Outright winner picks for the Home Run Derby are available here.

Longest Home Run in 1st Round

Prince Fielder  +355

The Field -535

Pick- Prince Fielder +355

He’s clearly one of the strongest and most experienced players in the contest with his massive frame. Fielder has been quite successful in this contest. Do you see Miguel Cabrera here? That should speak volumes.

Chris Davis +500

The Field -900

No value to the field and Davis’s strength at Camden Yards is to left –centerfield. Davis leads the league with 37 home runs and could be on track for some records if you leave the steroid era out. He should have great success here.

Picks- Combine Prince Fielder +355 and Chris Davis +500 in equal separate bets

Most Home Runs in Round 1…

The player that wins this prop is the guy with the best fitted swing to knock the baseball out of the park and not “Who’s the strongest? I like the head to head battles because you have a much better chance of winning.

Chris Davis -180

Yoenis Cespedes +150

Cespedes does have power, but is a wild swinger and Davis is controlled. Davis is the easy pick as the odds tell you.

Pick- Chris Davis -180

Robinson Cano -155

Michael Cuddyer +125

Pick- Robinson Cano -155

Cano won’t hit deep, long balls, but has the perfect swing for this contest, the experience, and is playing in New York.

Robinson Cano -110

Bryce Harper -120

Pick- Robinson Cano -110

Harper is an “X-Factor”, but I know what I get from Cano and that’s what I need when making a bet

Prince Fielder -150

Robinson Cano- 120

Pick- Robinson Cano -120

Fielder could make it to the end, but this is the 1st round. Make a small bet on Robbie as he has that short, compact style swing and Fielder has a violent swing in which he’ll need to conserve energy for the later round.

Chris Davis -145

Bryce Harper-115

Pick- Chris Davis -145

Like Camden Fields, the ballpark is made for the major’s home run leader

Chris Davis -180

Yoenis Cespedes +150

Pick- Chris Davis -180

Cespedes has major power, but he’s not a consistent enough player.

Prince Fielder -165

David Wright -+135

Pick- Prince Fielder  -165

Fielder has the experience and the power. Even if he paces himself, Wright is no match for Fielder.

One For Wright!!!

Yoenis Cespedes -130

David Wright +100

Pick- David Wright +100

Wright doesn’t want to embarrass himself in front of the hometown fans and Cespedes can’t be relied upon.

Cuddyer Is Clutch!!!

Bryce Harper -185

Michael Cuddyer +155

Pick- Michael Cuddyer +155

Players like Cespedes and Harper have great potential, but are inconsistent. This is a great spot for Colorado’s Michael Cuddyer.

David Wright +100

Pedro Alvarez -130

Pick- David Wright +100

This is a bit of a reach, but although Alvarez has more power, Wright is the better player and will attempt to represent the Mets in the best way possible.

This should be a great show. Bet within your limits because anything can happen. Good luck to all participants, and especially the betting public!

Don't forget to have a look at Steven Suarez' All-Star Twin Pack!

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