MLB Picks: Home Advantage Main Factor In Yankees vs Orioles

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 3, 2016 3:00 PM GMT

Advocates of current pitcher form will shy away from this contest based on the competitive price and excellent recent outings by both! I find value in 3 factors for your MLB Picks.

Namely, a home/road dichotomy, superior hitting and a strong series history record for both Baltimore and Tillman must be considered when making your MLB Picks on this game.

The NY Yankees and Baltimore Orioles begin their 3-game weekend series at Camden Yards with this 7:05 ET first pitch on Friday, June 3rd. The Yankees come off a 5-4 makeup game win at Detroit, while Baltimore enters off consecutive wins vs. Boston in which they scored 25 runs and split the 4-game series. The MLB Odds Have the Orioles at around -125 home favorite for this game.

That 25-run outburst for Baltimore is a good reason why the Birds have the No.7 ranked OPS at .767 entering the week. That is far superior to the hitting of the Yankees, whose .680 OPS entering the week is good for 26th place. The Yankees have plated only 24 runs in their previous 9 games.

Baltimore currently stands 19-10 at home. Those 19 home wins are more than any other team in MLB other than the Chicago Cubs (20). With the Yankees a mediocre 12-16 on the road, it speaks to a solid home/road dichotomy for the home team. This is meaningful because entering play today, MLB home teams are just 407-397 at home this year.

Turning our attention to the pitching matchup, we find both Tillman and Eovaldi in good form. In his last 7 starts, Eovaldi is 6-0. In his last 5 starts, he has a 2.03 ERA, while allowing 1 or less run in each of his last 3 outings. A 3.86 ERA in 3 starts vs. Baltimore is average at best.

The numbers for Tillman are superior. For the year, there is a record of 7-1 with 2.92 ERA an impressive .607 OPS. Like Eovaldi, he has a 6-0 record his last 7 starts with a 2.33 ERA. He also, however, has an impressive history against the Yankees from this mound. In 7 starts that record is 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA.

That confirms the home/road dichotomy of the matchup and adds to a series history that has seen Baltimore win 7 of their most recent 8 matchups.

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Free MLB Pick: Orioles -122
Best Line Offered: at Heritage