For today's upset MLB pick in major league baseball we go to Miami to see how the Marlins are going to beat the St. Louis Cardinals. There is a pretty good value on the Marlins in this spot with a good pitcher on the mound against arguably the best team in baseball in the Cardinals.
MLB odds makers have come out with this game at about +106 for the Marlins. The best odds I have seen are at +111 at Betonline. With the Cardinals being one of the best teams in baseball I imagine this line will probably go up on the Marlins before first pitch.
On the Mound
Lance Lynn takes the mound for the Cardinals with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He is 4-4 on the year and is a really good strikeout pitcher with 77 strikeouts in only 73 innings pitched. On the road go he has not been as sharp with a 3.93 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Also, this will be his first start in almost 3 weeks after injuring his forearm. Dan Haren for the Marlins has been really solid this season and comes in with a 3.19 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00. He is pretty consistent in giving up an earned run here and there but he seems to avoid really bad outings. He also keeps the hit totals down in his appearances allowing only 10 hits in his last 19 innings pitched. In addition, at home his ERA drops to 2.32 with batters only hitting .209 against him in Miami.
Overall the Cardinals rank higher than the Marlins in just about every major offensive category. But in a couple categories there is not a big disparity, for example the Cardinals rank eighth in hits per game in the major leagues and Miami 10th. Also, although the Marlins rank in the bottom part of the league in runs scored per game rank 24th, the Cardinals are not a ton better ranked just 19th. We also have a nice trend in home and away averages with the Cardinals hitting .254 as a team on road games this season compared to the Marlins that hit .263 at home.
This a really good pitching matchup today with Lynn and Haren. It is evident the Cardinals so far this season have the better team, but with Haren on the mound and guys like Stanton in the lineup there is good value here on the Marlins for the upset. I'm going to back them in this spot today on the plus money line and I suggest you do the same with your free baseball picks.
MLB Pick: Marlins +106 at BetOnline