MLB Picks: Hamels & Rangers Unable To Tame Ruthless Tigers

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, May 6, 2016 3:02 PM UTC

Friday, May. 6, 2016 3:02 PM UTC

OPS is more important than ERA as of now. Hamels is a great example and it's clear after his game with Angels. Now we take that & the MLB odds to cash in on Rangers vs. Tigers.

Texas Rangers (Hamels) vs. Detroit Tigers (Zimmermann)
The Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers meet for the first time this season, when they play Game 1 of their 3-game weekend set at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 pm ET. In this game, we are eager to take advantage of a more than $0.20 line drop, providing us with great value on the Detroit Tigers, who feature the better hitting and better pitching across the board.


The Importance Of OPS
In an article I published last week, I definitively proved that the OPS (the combination of on-base percentage and slugging average) is a more reliable indicator than is ERA. That is why it came as no surprise to this bureau that Texas starter, Hamels, who had a .749 OPS entering his previous start, got blasted by the Angels in a 9-6 Texas’ loss.

That boosted his OPS to .767 (only 75th best among qualifying starters). That far belies Hamels’ 3-0 record and 3.30 ERA. Yet, it is clear that the 4-runs on 5 IP pitched in Hamels’ last start continues to make him a go AGAINST starter. That is reinforced by his performance the last time he faced Detroit, in which he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits last September 29th. Should Hamels again struggle as expected, we should expect little from the Rangers’ bullpen, whose .846 OPS is 28th in MLB.

As if those pitching edges were not enough, consider Detroit’s starter, Zimmermann, who has been the best off-season acquisition (from Washington), than any other starter in MLB. Zimmermann is paying huge dividends with a 5-0 start and 0.55 ERA, which is supported by the 4th best OPS at .537. The Detroit bullpen is far superior to their Texas counterparts with a .670 OPS (No. 12 in the nation). That leaves it to the bats of each team, where the OPS numbers again clearly favor Detroit with an edge of .746 to .701. With those type of edges across the board and Texas only scoring 8 total runs in their previous 4 games (while losing the last 3), it affords us a great opportunity on the home-standing Tigers tonight.


Now, that the price has been bet down to -1.30 (from -1.50), there is huge value in backing Detroit and Zimmermann at home with the better hitting and the better pitching across the board.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Detroit Tigers tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers -125
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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