MLB Picks: Greinke & Dodgers vs. Rockies

Joe Freda

Wednesday, July 3, 2013 11:48 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 3, 2013 11:48 AM UTC

The Los Angeles Dodgers cruised in Tuesday’s 8-0 victory as 144 road favorites over the Colorado Rockies, finishing with 14 hits. Wednesday’s rematch has MLB odds makers expecting a closer contest, with Colorado’s Tyler Chatwood (4-1, 2.13 ERA) facing Los Angeles’ Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.94 ERA).

Where do we believe that the best betting value lies for our MLB picks in this matchup?

Dodgers, Puig stay hot 

Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig cracked a homer and double as part of Tuesday’s victory, finishing 3-for-5. Los Angeles’ Andre Ethier and Juan Uribe united to hit 4-for-8, while starter Clayton Kershaw held the Rockies to four hits over a full nine frames. 

Colorado’s Michael Cuddyer saw his 27-game hitting streak come to a close, batting 0-for-4 from the cleanup spot. Rockies slugger Carlos Gonzalez struck out three times, leaving two men on base.

Chatwood outdueled at home

Chatwood picked up a second straight no-decision in Thursday’s 3-2 defeat for Colorado to the New York Mets, failing to collect as 167 home ‘chalk.’ The 23-year-old gave up one run over six frames, allowing four hits and three walks. 

Rockies reliever Matt Belisle recorded his staff’s loss, giving up a late two-run homer to New York’s Marlon Byrd. Colorado’s Todd Helton logged an RBI with a sacrifice fly, while mate Wilin Rosario drilled a double in a 2-for-4 night. 

Greinke goes seven for win

Greinke cashed as a 185 home favorite on the same night’s card, with Los Angeles notching a 6-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. The 10-year veteran allowed four runs over seven innings, surrendering two homers as part of 12 hits given up. 

Los Angeles erased a late 4-3 deficit thanks to a two-run single from Yasiel Puig, scoring mates A.J. Ellis and Juan Uribe. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen anchored a trio of relievers for his seventh save, giving up one hit in the final frame.


Back the Rockies at home

The MLB odds first opened Greinke as a minus 104 road choice, with early action on Los Angeles lifting the premium to 112. The ‘total’ was first set at 9 ½, dropping to nine after initial UNDER wagers.

I am backing Chatwood and Colorado as part of Wednesday’s sports picks, taking the short-dog price. 

Colorado is 3-2 in Chatwood’s five starts at Coors Field, including a 2-0 mark in his pair of spots as a home underdog. The righty gave up no runs against the Dodgers in April’s visit to Los Angeles, standing in for six frames.

Greinke has allowed a sizable 1.65 WHIP and .376 OBP on the road, with the Dodgers going 1-3 in his last four starts away from home. Last month’s outing in Denver saw the 29-year-old allow four runs over 5 1/3 IP, with the Dodgers dropping the matchup, 7-6.

Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez has cracked three extra-base hits in a 5-for-12 history facing Greinke, with a .917 SLG. Los Angeles’ octane looks to drop from Tuesday’s opener, with Don Mattingly’s club going a sparse 7-19 in its last 26 duels that followed scoring five or more runs. 

Look for the Rockies to even up the series here, finding some spark and bouncing back from their shutout setback. 

MLB Pick:  Colorado Rockies +102 at Bet365
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