MLB Picks: Great Underdog Value In Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, June 15, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 15, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks will battle in the rubber match of this three-game set after Los Angeles earned a 7-4 victory last night. Let’s review the MLB odds and cash in!

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 35-16, +19.46 units
I took yesterday off but Monday we cashed yet another ticket as the Miami Marlins laid the smack down on the San Diego Padres by the score of 13-4. We are on a torrid pace, clicking on 10 of our last 11 MLB Picks and up almost 20 units on a season that has seen us cash at a documented 68.6 percent of our plays. Let’s take a look at the MLB Odds in this matchup in the desert and keep this money train rolling!


Los Angeles Dodgers (34-32, -6.2 units)
The Dodgers have stumbled recently by dropping three of their last four contests and now trail the Giants in the NL West by six games. But yesterday Big Blue got back on track courtesy of a two-run single and two-run home run by Chase Utley with Joc Pederson adding a pair of solo shots and Justin Turner with a solo shot of his own in the 7-4 win. Offense has not come easy to Los Angeles as evidenced by their .232 batting average (27th), .307 on base percentage (25th), .377 slugging percentage (28th) and 274 runs scored which places them 18th in the majors.

Southpaw ace Clayton Kershaw (9-1, 1.52 ERA, 0.65 WHIP) gets the nod this afternoon who leads the league in ERA (1.52) and strikeouts (122) with seven consecutive winning decisions under his belt. Kershaw was dominant in his last outing when he pitched eight full innings en route to a critical 3-2 victory over the division leading San Francisco Giants last week.


Arizona Diamondbacks (29-38, -8.6 units)
Until yesterday the D-backs were riding a three-game winning streak until they bowed to LA yesterday with their hurlers getting hammered for seven runs, including three long balls. Though Arizona’s pitching has gotten pasted their lineup has been surprisingly effective with a team batting average of .264 (9th), .325 on base percentage (10th), .430 slugging percentage (8th) and tied for 12th in most runs scored in the major leagues.

The Diamondbacks will counter with a lefty of their own in Patrick Corbin (3-5, 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) who is 3-4 in his career against the Dodgers with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.447. His team's record is 5-4 (+1.5 units) in these starts. In Corbin’s last outing he took the loss in an 8-6 defeat to Miami where he allowed four runs on five hits in six plus innings of work.


Betting Analysis
It’s hard to bet against the best pitcher in baseball but today’s the day. I am not going to even try to make a case for Patrick Corbin versus Clayton Kershaw but what I will tell you is that the Dodgers’ ace has had his difficulties against the Diamondbacks throughout his career. Again, “difficulties” is a relative term but consider that Arizona has beaten Kershaw eight times in his 23 starts against them and his record is 11-8 with an ERA of 2.76. Arizona has the highest batting average (.238), on-base percentage (.296), slugging percentage (.351) and OPS (.647) versus Kershaw among those teams who have faced him more than three times.

We can agree that the Diamondbacks are not a very good team but their lineup is not bad with All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and nifty little second baseman Jean Segura leading the way. Meanwhile the Dodgers have been plagued with injuries and their offense has been mired in the bottom of third of all MLB teams this season. There is betting value in this one and we will grab the big dog at home to add to our burgeoning bankroll.

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Free MLB Pick:  Arizona +210
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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