MLB Picks: Great Under Value As Pitchers Will Perform Above Expectations When Oakland A's Visit The L.A Angels

Jesse Hahn

Charles Stark

Thursday, August 4, 2016 1:34 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 4, 2016 1:34 PM UTC

Los Angeles Angels fans were none too happy about trading Hector Santiago for Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer. Although the trade was mainly Santiago for Meyer the second piece of it in Nolasco gets the start today for the Angels. There doesn't seem to be any value in backing him in his first Angels start but it looks to me there is some betting value on the total of this contest.

Odds makers have come out with a total of 8.5 at most places with a little bit of juice on the over. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back under the total of 8.5 in this contest with MLB odds at +105. It would seem that neither of these pitchers has the capability of throwing extended innings without getting banged up a bit but I think they will be fine today.


Oakland Athletics
Jesse Hahn gets the ball for Oakland with a 5.53 ERA and 1.56 whip this season in eight starts. It would seem on those numbers alone that this game would be headed for way over the total, however, I don't believe that will be the case. Indeed Hahn has had his struggles this season, particularly on the road, but his overall career numbers are not bad and he has the capability to keep the damage to a minimum at times. 

He should come in with some confidence after pitching his last major league start at the end of July allowing one earned run off of four hits against Tampa Bay. Of course, the Rays are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball but the Angels can be limited at times as well. Career wise he has a respectable 3.69 ERA and 1.26 whip and 36 career starts, expect him to build off his game versus Tampa Bay and pitch well today. At the plate Oakland remains one of the poorer hitting teams in baseball with an OPS just over .700 which ranks them 25th in the league as well as ranking second to last in batting average on balls in play.


Los Angeles Angels
Ricky Nolasco gets his first start for Los Angeles and comes in with a 5.13 ERA and 1.35 whip with his time on the Twins. Earlier in July he pitched well against Oakland in Minnesota allowing just three earned runs off of four hits in six innings. Although his ERA is very high if we take a closer look at his last 10 starts he actually has been pretty decent. In three of his last 10 starts he allowed five or more runs with his latest poor performance coming in Boston allowing six earned runs in just two innings, but let me just emphasize that was in Boston the best hitting team in baseball. 

In four out of his last five starts he has allowed just a total of eight earned runs over the course of 26 innings. Make note that two of those games were in Texas and Detroit, two of the best hitting teams in baseball. Throughout his ten year career, Nolasco has always perplexed me because of his dual ability to pitch as if he's never thrown the ball before and then come in and look like Cy Young. I expect the latter out of him today against a less than stellar hitting Oakland team. At the plate the Angels are decent but excluding their 13 run offensive outburst in Kansas City about a week ago, they are only averaging around three runs per game in their last 10 contests.


Free MLB Pick: Under the total of 8.5 +105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

July Record: 13-9
August Record: 2-1

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