MLB Picks: Great Pitching & Poor Hitting Leads to Cubs & Mets Under

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, October 18, 2015 3:34 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015 3:34 PM GMT

With only one game on Sunday’s MLB slate, we’re going to focus on the total. Don’t make a move on Game 2 of the NLCS between the Cubs and Mets without first reading our betting preview article.

Cubs (Arrieta) @ Mets (Syndergaard) 8:07 PM ET
I’m going to concentrate on the total in Sunday’s NLCS Game 2 today between the Cubs and Mets. The first pitch at Citi Field in Flushing, New York is slated for 8:07 PM ET. According to current (9:45 AM ET) MLB betting odds at TheGreek.com, they have a posted total of 6.0 on this game. That’s worth noting since the other majors sportsbooks are all at 5.5.

 

“Jake the Dominator”
I can write a 300 page book on the accomplishments of Jake Arrieta this season. However, I’ll save you and me a lot of time and provide a more condensed version. Arrieta and the Dodgers Zach Greinke are prohibitive favorites to win the 2015 National League Cy Young Award. I can say with no uncertain terms, that my vote would go to Arrieta if I was afforded an opportunity to do so.

Arrieta has allowed 1 earned run or less in twelve of his previous fourteen starts, and that includes no earned runs in ten of those outings. He does come off a rare less than dominating start in the NLDS against St. Louis. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings during an 8-6 Cubs win. It was the first time since 6/16/2015 that he allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start, and the 4 earned runs allowed marked a season high which occurred on three other separate occasions prior to his previous outing. Arrieta has faced the Mets twice this year, posting an excellent 1.13 ERA, and both of those games stayed under the total. Pitching on the road hasn’t deterred the Cubs hurler, evidenced by his microscopic 0.39 ERA in his last six away game starts.

 

Mets Hurler loves Citi Field
Noah Syndergaard has been superb during his starts at home in 2015. The rookie right-hander has compiled a sparkling 2.46 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and a better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio in his twelve starts at Citi Field. He’s also displayed very good form in his last three starts overall with a 2.57 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.

 

Final Analysis
There’s a reason why this total is so low, and at this time of the year, it’s hardly a rarity. Mets bats have been silent for the most part of this 2015 postseason, hitting just .218 as a team, and also includes a poor .673 OPS. The Cubs postseason offense has been a bit erratic as well, evidenced by an uninspiring .232 team batting average and .304 OBP.

I like this game to play on the low side of the total for one of my MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Play on the Cubs & Mets under 6.0 (-140) at The Greek

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